New analysis of on-chain models suggests Bitcoin’s bull cycle has not finished. Despite the October 2025 high, key indicators place the final peak between June and September 2026. This prediction for the next bear market delays expectations of an imminent collapse.
The analysis relies on the Pi-Cycle Top Indicator, which has not signaled a “top” crossover. This model projects the actual peak for the summer of 2026. Likewise, the MVRV Z-Score, a valuation metric, indicates the risk zone begins when Bitcoin reaches between $174,000 and $203,000. Currently, the MVRV remains at 1.81, far from the euphoria levels (3.0-3.5) seen in previous peaks.
This cycle has extended beyond historical halving patterns. Two main factors explain this behavior. First, inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed over $60 billion, outpacing the new supply from miners. Second, global liquidity in the economy has remained elevated, supporting risk assets and delaying cycle exhaustion.
Why is this Bitcoin cycle extending longer than expected?
The prediction for the next bear market suggests a complex structure. Models indicate that global liquidity (GLI) could peak between March and May 2026, before the price peak. This could create a “bull trap”: an initial correction followed by a final bullish surge into the summer. Therefore, the sharp drop may not be immediate but rather unfold in phases.
If Bitcoin’s peak occurs between June and September 2026, the true bear market would be confirmed 6 to 10 weeks later. This places the start of the sustained downturn between August and November 2026. For now, the $126,000 high from 2025 is considered an intermediate peak, not the end of the bull cycle. The real top is still ahead according to these models.
