The digital asset market is closely watching Ripple’s behavior today, as it has emerged as one of the weaker large-cap tokens this week. Currently, the XRP price is down approximately 6% over the past seven days, generating notable pressure on short-term investor sentiment.
Analysts suggest that this pullback does not necessarily mark the end of its bullish trend, but rather that the asset is at a “make-or-break” point that depends on a technical setup last seen four months ago.
On the daily chart, an inverse head-and-shoulders structure is forming, a pattern that usually signals a trend reversal toward the upside. For this path to open, the asset must first reclaim the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), located near $2.24. Historically, this level has acted as a crucial decision point; last September, reclaiming this zone propelled a 12% rally, while a similar move earlier that same month generated a 16% rebound in market value.
Although the XRP price was recently rejected near this technical barrier on January 14, the latest sell-off showed a long lower wick in the candlesticks. This technical detail indicates that buyers quickly absorbed the selling pressure, keeping the bullish structure alive for now. Therefore, the validation of the move depends exclusively on a sustained close above the 100-day EMA, which would act as the necessary fuel to seek the technical target of $2.52.
Whales and large holders accumulate millions of tokens in anticipation of a bullish breakout
On the other hand, on-chain data reveals strategic positioning by large investors beneath the market surface. Whales holding between 10 and 100 million XRP increased their balances by approximately $60 million since January 14. Likewise, long-term holders, those who have held the asset for more than 155 days, have increased their positions by 5.2% in just 48 hours. This coordinated accumulation suggests strong institutional conviction, moving away from the emotional buying of retail traders.
This interest from large capital comes in a context where the derivatives market shows an extreme imbalance. Currently, short liquidation leverage exceeds $520 million, representing over 95% of total positioning in perpetual markets. In this way, any moderate upward move could trigger a “short squeeze,” accelerating the strength of the XRP price rapidly. Coinglass data technology confirms that the market is dangerously tilted in one direction.
Will institutional buying pressure be able to overcome the massive resistance from shorts in the derivatives market?
Likewise, support levels are now more critical than ever to maintain the validity of the projected scenario. The XRP price needs to stay above $1.84 to avoid weakening the current structure, while a drop below $1.77 would completely invalidate the bullish pattern. For this reason, investors should watch the $2.48 to $2.52 zone, whose definitive breakout would activate the 33% growth projection that many financial analysts are expecting for this quarter.
In conclusion, Ripple faces a technical challenge that requires precision and constant buying volume. If the asset manages to replicate the strength shown in September, the rally could finally get moving toward new annual highs. However, as long as the 100-day EMA is not reclaimed, the market will remain in a tense consolidation phase. The coming days will define whether the whale accumulation was the prelude to a massive breakout or if short-seller pressure will manage to halt the momentum of high-cap criptomonedas.
