The XRP price prediction debate has intensified as Stellar’s network recorded a sharp uptick in activity, prompting fresh comparisons between the two ecosystems. Stellar processed 264.6 million payments in a two‑month span and reported rapid user growth, data that immediately raises questions about whether XRP’s subdued on‑chain performance masks a severe undervaluation.
Stellar’s operational metrics show a sustained increase in usage: accounts rose from 8.6 million to 9.7 million, daily transactions topped 7 million by December, and total value locked (TVL) surpassed $179.18 million. TVL, a measure of assets committed to a network’s smart contracts or services, indicates active economic utility rather than speculative holdings. Strategic integrations with Paxos, Mastercard and PayPal USD drove that growth and have fed bullish price forecasts for Stellar Lumens (XLM), ranging from $0.45–$0.75 to targets as high as $8.
Historically, XRP and XLM have tracked each other closely; their decade‑long correlation sits between 91% and 97%, reflecting shared architectural goals and overlapping market narratives. At the same time, XRP’s ledger shows weaker immediate momentum: payment volume fell by roughly 730 million XRP and new daily active addresses declined from 15,823 to about 3,500, a drop that signals lower short‑term engagement. These figures describe current liquidity and user activity rather than longer‑term institutional readiness.
A valuation counterpoint is XRP’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z‑score of 2.13, which signals the token trades below levels associated with prior peaks. The MVRV Z‑score is a metric that contrasts market capitalization with the average price paid for circulating tokens to gauge over‑ or under‑valuation. Several price models cited in market commentary project targets such as $4.40 by Q1 2026, $5–$6 and, in some scenarios, up to $15 in 2025; outlier forecasts extend far beyond these figures and should be treated as speculative.
XRP Price Prediction: why Stellar’s surge matters
Ripple, the company most closely associated with XRP, asserts significant institutional positioning: private‑market valuations cited at $40 billion, $500 million in disclosed funding, and an internal holding reported at roughly $70 billion of XRP. That concentration of assets and management focus on bank‑grade use cases positions XRP toward institutional corridors rather than purely retail adoption. The firm’s pursuit of a banking license and the broader market anticipation around altcoin ETF approvals add layers to the asset’s institutional thesis.
ISO 20022 compliance has been emphasized as a technical enabler for integration with legacy finance; ISO 20022 is an international messaging standard designed to harmonize financial communications for payments and securities. Observers point to regulatory milestones — specifically the ongoing lawsuit and expectations for ETF decisions around October 2025 — as decisive for institutional capital allocation. Those outcomes, combined with potential licensing progress, are framed as the primary triggers that could shift XRP from underpriced to re‑rated by large allocators.
Stellar’s surge provides an operational proof point for cross‑border rails, while XRP’s lower on‑chain activity contrasts with metrics that argue it may be trading at a discount. The critical inflection points to watch are regulatory clarity through lawsuit resolution, Ripple’s licensing progress and ETF approval timelines, notably October 2025 and Q1 2026 for some price scenarios. These milestones will determine whether XRP’s valuation gap closes and guide product, compliance and institutional allocation decisions.
