XRP price is set to finish 2025 in negative territory, ending a two-year winning streak as the token trades near $1.90 in late December 2025. That decline follows an 81% rally in 2023 and a 238% surge in 2024, when XRP closed the year at about $2.87, and reflects shifting market dynamics and investor risk appetite.
A combination of profit-taking and year‑end selling has amplified a pervasive bearish sentiment among traders. Roughly 42% of XRP holders are currently underwater, a concentration that can accelerate downside when investors prioritize loss mitigation. Correlation with Bitcoin’s recent weakness has also transmitted volatility to XRP, reinforcing downward pressure despite the token’s independent use cases.
Regulatory uncertainty remains a material restraint for institutional flows; while litigation outcomes have occasionally clarified the legal status of Ripple, the long‑term implications continue to weigh on custody, listing, and institutional access decisions.
On the upside, some market participants still point to potential catalysts such as spot ETF approvals and wider adoption of RippleNet services, but those remain conditional and prospective.
Technical outlook and forecasts for XRP price
Machine‑learning models and quantitative simulations produce a range of year‑end scenarios. The average algorithmic target sits around $2.43, implying a roughly 15.3% decline from the start of 2025. More bearish projections place year‑end prices between $1.35 and $1.81, which would translate into losses of about 37%–53% for the year.
Technical indicators underline the risk: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in bearish territory, signaling weakened momentum; the RSI is a momentum oscillator that assesses recent price change to indicate overbought or oversold conditions. Chart analysts have also identified patterns consistent with a potential double‑top distribution, elevating the probability of further downside in short‑term price action.
Market veterans have warned of deeper falls if current structures break. “XRP could fall below $1,” said trader Peter Brandt, flagging the double‑top risk and underscoring how quickly technical deterioration can compound sentiment‑driven selling.
The indicators converge on a meaningful probability that XRP will close 2025 at a loss, breaking its two‑year advance and highlighting the asset’s susceptibility to macro and regulatory headwinds. For investors and compliance teams, the year underscores the importance of scenario planning for custody, liquidity, and position limits.
