The SEC will release verdicts on several XRP exchange-traded-fund applications between 18 and 25 October 2025. Traders expect the agency to green light at least one fund, a step that would open the door for large institutional purchases and push the spot price sharply higher. The outcome matters to retail holders, derivatives desks and any fund that tracks crypto regulation.
Polymarket contracts and Bloomberg surveys price the chance of approval at 90 – 99 percent, a reading that has already pulled forward buying interest.
A parallel tail wind comes from the Ripple-SEC court file — leaks point to a final fine of $50 – 125 million and a formal close to the case removing a four year overhang.
Chart analysts note that the $0.52 – 0.55 zone has held on every retest since March and the 200-day moving average now slopes upward; together with the ETF catalyst, they argue the setup favours a break above $0.70.
Price paths for XRP
Research desks map three price paths. The base case assumes one or two ETFs win clearance and assets under management climb to $2 – 3 billion within ninety days — under that model XRP trades between $3.30 and $4.02.
A middle track adds steady corporate treasury adoption and lifts the range to $3 – 5.
Outlier projections factor in approvals for every pending ETF and billion-dollar inflows from pension funds, yielding targets of $20 – 27, but the same notes flag the numbers as low probability bets.
Approval would deepen order book depth and shift volume from retail exchanges to regulated brokers. The extra liquidity could cut bid ask spreads besides weaken Bitcoin’s grip on overall market share, giving XRP a larger slice of any capital rotation.
Risk remains elevated around the decision: the first week after a verdict typically brings 30 – 50 percent intraday swings, and a fast spike often retraces by one third once leveraged longs cash out.
The October decision window stands as the next binary catalyst, and the surveys say the ruling will set the direction of XRP’s price for the rest of the year.
