An exhaustive analysis based on artificial intelligence, edited by Mohammad Shahid, establishes a probable timeframe for the start of the next crypto winter. According to the data, the bear market could begin between the last quarter of 2026 and the second quarter of 2027. This prediction stems from studying historical data since 2011, macroeconomic trends, and market hype cycles.
The report highlights that, despite current speculation in certain niches, the market is not showing widespread euphoria. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve has begun to ease its monetary policy, a factor that historically extends risk appetite. This context, coupled with increased institutional participation, delays the arrival of a prolonged downturn.
What does history teach us about bear markets?
The relevance of this prediction is based on the analysis of the four major crypto winters that have occurred since 2011. Each one, though triggered by different events like hacks or bankruptcies, shared a common pattern: they followed a hype cycle. Excessive speculation, risk concentration, and fragile leverage were the catalysts for previous crashes.
The study underscores that the current global economy, while fragile, is not in a phase of severe tightening. The Fed’s first rate cut and unstable global growth suggest the risk cycle is still in an early stage. This supports the idea that there is greater upside potential before the market reaches a definitive turning point.
Implications and factors to watch
For investors, this prediction offers a temporal framework for risk management. The analysis suggests that 2026 will be a phase of strength, but with the need for disciplined controls. However, there are factors that could bring the next crypto winter forward to the first half of 2026, such as a re-acceleration of inflation or a liquidity collapse in the ecosystem.
On the other hand, the bear market could be postponed until after 2027. This would happen if disinflation continues cleanly and institutional adoption expands without major setbacks. Investors must monitor liquidity and monetary policy, the market’s leverage level, and retail euphoria, as these will be the key indicators to anticipate the end of the current bull cycle.
