The U.S. government shutdown halted the release of employment and inflation numbers, interrupting key signals for markets. Traders responded by buying Bitcoin plus gold as the missing data left investors guessing that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Lower-rate bets raise cash supply and alter risk budgets for funds, crypto vehicles and compliance teams.
The summary states that the data blackout pushes traders to price in Fed cuts. Past cuts raised cash in the system and lifted high risk assets such as Bitcoin. Gold also climbs when politics as well as growth wobble.
Bitcoin and gold sometimes move together, but the link is not fixed, and they can also part ways depending on the mix of policy and macro signals.
Price projections and shutdown history
JPMorgan’s note projects Bitcoin at $165.000 if it matches gold’s volatility adjusted gains, while other banks target $125 000. Models flag supply walls near $110.000 even after cuts.
Past shutdowns show a mixed record for Bitcoin: during the 2013 shutdown it rose 14% between 1 and 17 October, while during the 2018-19 shutdown it fell 6%.
Adoption or flows may shift toward ETFs, ETNs and tokenized products as institutions reallocate cash; liquidity next to price can improve on cut hopes, yet the data gap widens intraday swings.
The risk plus compliance teams rerun stress tests, reset leverage caps and tighten KYC/AML on Bitcoin products; and regulation and product leads must track Fed speeches and the shutdown’s length to revise custody rules and AUM limits.
Watch the shutdown duration, the next Fed statement, Bitcoin’s reaction to cash flows and the mixed record of past shutdowns. The summary concludes that the Fed’s next words and the shutdown’s length will set the path for Bitcoin and gold, and that funds should brace for sharp moves or reset risk and compliance settings around those events.
