After staging a modest 5% rebound, Dogecoin is now facing a fragile outlook: soft network demand and visible profit-taking by long-term holders threaten to undermine the recovery. The recent bounce may be running out of steam unless reinforcements arrive. Here, we examine the risks that could push DOGE downward over the near term.
In recent sessions, DOGE posted a modest rebound of about 5%, attempting to claw back losses following a broader market downturn. However, the uptick appears more like a technical respite than a renewed rally. Crucially, new user participation has waned: the number of fresh addresses transacting DOGE has dropped significantly compared to the liquidation event of “Black Friday,” reflecting weak inflows from new buyers.
Meanwhile, the “liveliness” metric — which captures movement of long-dormant coins — has increased, signaling that long-term holders are moving or selling their holdings during the rebound. This behavior raises the risk of renewed selling pressure.
A shallow bounce vulnerable to reversal
From a technical perspective, DOGE is trading below its 20-day exponential moving average, a sign that short-term sentiment remains tilted toward the downside. If bullish renewal fails to materialize, the next key support lies near USD 0.167. A breakdown of that level could open the path toward the 13-month low at around USD 0.095.
On the flip side, if new capital reenters and buying momentum strengthens, DOGE might attempt to break above the resistance zone near USD 0.224. That move would weaken the bearish thesis and could pave the way for a rebound toward USD 0.264. But such a scenario hinges on sustained buyer follow-through.
In conclusion, despite a recent bounce, DOGE is confronting signs of fragility both technically and on-chain. Without a strong influx of fresh demand, a deeper corrective move toward critical supports remains a real possibility.
