Bitcoin market sentiment has undergone a radical shift. In just three days, traders on the Myriad prediction market flipped their expectations. They moved from a 75% bearish probability to a 52% bullish majority today.
This mood swing is notable. Just 72 hours ago, the majority was betting Bitcoin would hit $100,000 before $120,000. However, the balance now tips slightly toward $120,000 first. This occurs as Bitcoin trades near $110,000, recovering from recent lows. Despite this shift, other indicators show caution. The Fear & Greed Index remains in “fear” (29 points). Furthermore, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw $366 million in outflows last Friday.
The relevance of this turn lies in the market’s confusion. Historically, October is a strong month for Bitcoin. Nonetheless, the current “Red October” is shaping up to be the worst since 2019. The market is defying seasonal expectations. High open interest in futures, exceeding $150 billion according to Coinglass, suggests institutional interest has not vanished. This duality between ETF outflows and high futures interest complicates the picture for investors.
Do the technical charts confirm the new optimism?
Technical analyses offer a mixed picture. The daily chart shows bearish signals. The RSI is below 50 (44.15), indicating continued selling pressure. The price is also struggling below the Ichimoku Cloud, a sign of resistance. On the other hand, the four-hour chart offers a breather. The short-term RSI climbed to 57.6, showing buying strength. A momentum indicator (Squeeze) even issued a bullish signal.
The market appears genuinely divided. The Bitcoin market sentiment on Myriad reflects more a reaction to the bounce from $107K than firm conviction. Daily technicals suggest a test of $100,000 remains probable. Meanwhile, the long-term blockchain structure (50-day EMA above 200-day) remains intact. Traders face conflicting signals, where patience will be key to navigating the uncertainty.
