XRP’s recent price decline may not just be a setback — according to on-chain and network indicators, it could be the groundwork for a strong bounce. With metrics showing reduced over-valuation and signs of capitulation, the stage might be set for a meaningful upside move if critical levels are breached.
XRP´s struggled to regain momentum after several failed recovery attempts and is currently trading around US$ 2.33. While that may appear weak, deeper metrics suggest this weak phase could actually be paving the way for an upswing. One key indicator is the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, which has recently declined for XRP. A lower NVT suggests the network’s transactional activity is growing relative to its valuation — a condition often favourable for sustainable price gains rather than speculative spikes.
Another important metric: the Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH-NUPL). For XRP, this indicator is now entering the “capitulation” zone — which may sound alarming, but historically for this token such levels have preceded strong recoveries. Essentially, when short-term holders are in bigger losses, panic/exits increase and that often clears the way for new capital entry and market resets. If the STH-NUPL remains above approximately -0.2, the environment is more stable — and current readings suggest it is hovering in that zone, bolstering the bullish thesis.
From a price-level perspective, the critical breakout threshold to watch is about US$ 2.35. A close above that level may trigger renewed confidence and push XRP toward the next resistance area near US$ 2.54 to US$ 2.80. A successful breach there could mark a structural shift in trend. On the flip side, if XRP loses support at roughly US$ 2.27, the more negative scenario opens — with risk of a drop toward US$ 2.13, indicating the corrective phase may extend.
Decline, metrics and the opportunity for a rebound
In terms of market psychology and flow, the current consolidation suggests accumulation in stealth by longer-term holders, while shorter-term holders have reduced exposure — a sign of maturation in the investor base. The fact that selling pressure has lessened and valuations are aligning with network usage suggests a healthier foundation.
That said, nothing guarantees a rebound — macro conditions, market-wide risk-off sentiment or new negative events could derail the thesis. In summary: although XRP’s price drop may have alarmed some, the combination of declining over-valuation, capitulation-zone indicators and accumulation behaviour may be setting up a significant rebound.
The key will be watching for breakout above US$ 2.35 and maintaining support above US$ 2.27 — those levels will dictate whether the bounce has substance or stalls.
