XRP is trading around $1.90 within a tight range between support near $1.83 and resistance around $1.98. Momentum tools lean bearish while some oscillators and on-chain flows offer countervailing signals, leaving short‑term direction uncertain.
Technical readings point to a predominantly cautious near‑term stance. The MACD and moving‑average frameworks have signaled sell bias across multiple timeframes, with one composite reading noting 0 Buy signals versus 12 Sell signals; XRP (RSI) was reported at about 36.863, indicating prevailing downward momentum.
A “Death Cross” formation — where a short‑term moving average crosses below a long‑term moving average — has been observed and is cited by some analysts as a warning of deeper corrections, with a downside scenario flagged as severe as a roughly 50% drop toward $1.25 if key supports fail.
Counterpoints appear in oscillators and pattern‑based indicators. Stochastic (STOCH(9,6)) readings registered buy signals, and STOCHRSI values were described as overbought in some snapshots, suggesting episodic upward pressure. The TD Sequential indicator has occasionally produced setups that preceded short rallies.
These conflicting signals have produced narrow‑range price action rather than a decisive trend, keeping attention on potential signs of trend exhaustion or renewed selling.
Technical indicators show a split outlook for XRP
Broader market dynamics add nuance to the technical picture. Odds of ETF approval for XRP in 2025 were cited as notably high in market discussions, with some prediction markets pricing the probability between 90% and 98%, and inflows into existing XRP‑related ETF products have continued.
Large holders have increased accumulation, with whale‑wallet activity reaching multiyear peaks, which observers interpret as a vote of confidence from major holders even as retail sentiment fades.
These signals have not yet translated into sustained upside. Commentators noted that ETF inflows and whale accumulation remain insufficient to overcome macro‑driven selling without a broader risk‑on shift.
The immediate structural test for XRP is its ability to clear resistance clustered in the $1.95–$1.98 band and then the psychological $2.00 level, where failure to break higher has so far limited upside.
XRP’s price action reflects a standoff between bearish momentum indicators and supportive institutional and on‑chain flows.
