Ethereum’s $4,400 breakout thesis centers on a sharp decline in long-term holder selling that removed a major supply overhang by Dec. 23, 2025. Concentrated whale accumulation and accelerating ETF traction add sustained demand to the on-chain support.
On-chain metrics pinpoint the decisive support as ETH selling dropped roughly 95% by december 23, falling from about 1.1 million ETH daily to 54,427 ETH, a shift that signals pronounced supply exhaustion. A concentrated cost-basis cluster at $3,150–$3,173, where approximately 2.94 million ETH were last acquired, marks a substantive resistance band that, once cleared, would remove a key overhead obstacle.
Concurrent demand is reinforced by roughly $9.2 billion of net whale buying and a $201 million ETH purchase attributed to Bitmine, while Ethereum ETF Assets Under Management rose 177% quarter-over-quarter, adding consistent institutional buy-side pressure.
Chart patterns align with the on-chain picture through an inverse head-and-shoulders on the daily with a neckline near $3,400, where a decisive daily close above that level on 1.5x–2x average volume would confirm a measured move toward the $4,400 objective.
Technical setup for the $4,400 breakout and confirmation levels
A falling wedge that developed since October targets $4,415 on a sustained break and retest of $3,560, the wedge’s upper trendline. Momentum indicators support the setup as the MACD shows a bullish crossover, while the RSI remains neutral around 41.7 and would corroborate growing bullish momentum on a sustained move above 50.
Failure points are clearly defined to protect the thesis: a daily close below $2,800 would invalidate the inverse head-and-shoulders, while a close beneath $2,620 would represent full invalidation of the bullish scenario.
The structural supply shift and institutional inflows underpin higher targets, with scenarios varying by conviction. Conservative projections range to $4,800–$6,925 by year-end 2025, while a highly optimistic path envisions $10,000 by Q1 2026, conditional on continued ETF approvals and scaling progress. For investors and compliance teams, operational focus is clear: monitor ETH selling trends, whale accumulation flows, and absorption of the $3,150–$3,173 cost-basis band.
The collapse in ETH selling provides a measurable on-chain support that materially improves the probability of a run toward $4,400, provided overhead supply near $3,150–$3,173 is absorbed and the $3,400 neckline is cleared on strong volume.
