Pi Coin traded higher in a fragile recovery as retail buyers absorbed recent selling, but the token’s broader trajectory depends on larger capital flows. Data through December 25, 2025, show a 1% gain in the prior 24 hours while the coin remained roughly 20% below its level from September 25, 2025, leaving the market at a technical inflection point.
Pi Coin registered a modest intraday rebound that follow(ed) a period of selling pressure; the uptick reflected retail “dip” buying rather than clear demand from larger liquidity providers. A bullish divergence in the Money Flow Index (MFI) between December 19 and December 25, 2025, indicated retail investors were accumulating into weakness.
The Money Flow Index measures buying and selling pressure by combining price and volume into a single oscillator. Data between December 6 and December 19 also showed quiet accumulation on the MFI despite falling prices, signaling that retail participants were absorbing flows while prices trended lower.
The market’s potential reversal hinges on Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) activity. The CMF, which tracks buying and selling by estimating institutional inflows and outflows, has broken above a descending trendline and was poised to test the zero line for the first time since mid-November 2025.
A prior CMF advance between November 14 and November 16, 2025, preceded a 10.76% rally, a precedent that frames current expectations: a sustained move through zero would suggest larger orders are entering the market and could validate the retail-driven bounce. Signs of meaningful volume support remain mixed, so the CMF’s behavior over the next sessions will be decisive.
Risk patterns and scenario levels for Pi Coin
Earlier analyses in late November flagged vulnerabilities that have not been fully erased. A bearish MFI divergence from November 21–24, 2025, coincided with On-Balance Volume (OBV) reading below its trendline; OBV aggregates volume to indicate whether volume is supporting price moves. Chart structure also showed a potential head-and-shoulders formation with a neckline near $0.182 as of November 27, 2025.
One November scenario warned a breach of that neckline could lead to a severe drawdown, estimating a possible 34% fall toward $0.19 or lower.
A separate downside projection tied to more recent thresholds places a confirmed breakdown under a daily close below $0.182 or a retreat beneath a $0.192 warning level as exposing roughly 25% risk toward $0.137. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), an oscillator that gauges recent price momentum, registered a hidden bearish divergence from November 20–26, 2025, reinforcing the risk that any loss of upward momentum could reopen the decline.
