XRP slipped below the $2 mark after a failed attempt to convert bullish technical setups into a sustained advance toward a $2.69 target. That breakdown matters because it exposed a concentration of seller supply around critical cost‑basis levels and coincided with visible outflows from spot vehicles.
The January move shifted the balance from tentative accumulation to dominant selling pressure, forcing market participants to reassess both short‑term trade plans and product-level exposure.
The bullish case had centered on a pathway to a 13% rally that required a decisive breach of the $2.41 resistance — a cost‑basis wall formed by roughly 1.56 billion XRP held at breakeven. Early technical signals that supported the scenario included a bullish divergence on the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a falling wedge structure, and a triple bottom near $1.77 that provided a structural base.
Price repeatedly failed at immediate overhead clusters between $2.01 and $2.06, while $2.18 emerged as a necessary breakout trigger that never held. Sellers capped each lift, producing lower highs below $1.98 and seven consecutive days of decline by mid‑January. The intended pathway — clear closes above $2.05 and $2.10, then a daily close above $2.41 — did not materialize, so the projected run to $2.69 stalled.
Flows and on‑chain context
Spot ETF flows turned negative, including a notable $833,770 net outflow from one listed XRP ETF on Jan. 16, which reinforced selling pressure. On‑chain metrics showed signs of weakening: new address creation hit a 13‑month low and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for long‑term holders returned to levels historically associated with corrections. Nevertheless, long‑term holders continued to accumulate, suggesting divergent positioning across investor cohorts.
The net picture was a classic technical-versus-flow mismatch: on‑chain accumulation signals and moving‑average crossovers coexisted with persistent selling, leaving the bullish indicators vulnerable to volume‑based negation.
For product managers and compliance teams, the episode underlined how concentrated cost‑basis clusters and ETF flow reversals can quickly change liquidity assumptions and margin requirements. Trading desks that sized positions to a favored breakout faced execution and funding risk once overhead supply reasserted itself.
Looking ahead, institutional demand patterns through 2026 will likely be the decisive external influence on XRP’s trajectory; until inflows to spot products and network activity show a sustained pickup, price recovery above the $2.41 wall will remain conditional. Investors and product teams should monitor confirmed daily closes above the key resistance levels and sustained positive net flows before assuming the 13% scenario is actionable.
