Ethereum (ETH) faced intensified selling pressure on January 20, trading around $2,951.45–$2,978 after a sharp 7% decline that followed a failure to hold the $3,150 support. The move reflected a confluence of technical breakdowns, large ETF outflows and rising exchange inflows, leaving immediate price risk skewed to the downside.
Price action confirmed the bearish tilt when ETH fell decisively below the $3,000 psychological line and was rejected from the 200‑day EMA near $3,334. Short‑term indicators reinforced that view: the Relative Strength Index sat near 32.5, the hourly MACD moved deeper into bearish territory, and the rolling moving‑average ensemble (MA5–MA200) registered zero buy signals and multiple sell signals.
Chart structure also flagged a potential double‑top on the 12‑hour time frame that, if confirmed, projects roughly a 7.5% move toward the $2,900 region.
Flows, leverage and liquidation risk
Capital flows compounded the technical weakness. Spot ETH ETFs recorded net outflows totalling $229.95 million on January 20, 2026, led by a $92 million withdrawal from BlackRock’s vehicle, ending a five‑day inflow streak and reducing spot demand. Exchange reserves rose after roughly 400,000 ETH were moved onto exchanges during the Christmas week period, increasing available sell supply.
Derivatives metrics amplified the downside threat: estimated leverage ratios remained elevated at about 0.72–0.76, open interest spiked on January 20 as short sellers added positions, and liquidation models place roughly $368 million of long exposures at risk if the $3,000 area breaks decisively. The Coinbase premium turned negative (near −0.08), signalling weaker US buying demand relative to other venues.
The combination of technical breakdowns, concentrated outflows and elevated leverage suggests downside testing of nearer‑term supports at $2,880 and, if that fails, the $2,750–$2,800 band.
Investors are now watching whether ETH can reclaim resistance near $3,020–$3,120 or whether continued ETF flows and exchange inflows will push prices lower, a sequence that would validate the current bearish thesis and likely trigger additional cascade liquidations in the short term.
