Hedera attempts to stabilize above 0.102 dollars following reports from Ananda Banerjee this January 22, highlighting concerning bearish metrics. Despite a slight recent rebound, institutional weakening seriously threatens the structure of the HBAR support levels. The lack of whale accumulation suggests that the current recovery could be extremely vulnerable to further downward corrections.
The technical formation known as the W-shaped recovery pattern, which usually indicates a bullish trend reversal, remains valid as long as price respects previous lows. However, the Chaikin Money Flow has begun to decline alarmingly, suggesting that institutional capital from large investors is progressively being withdrawn from the market. This indicator, by sitting below the zero line again, exerts strong pressure on the upward trend maintained since late December, compromising liquidity.
Furthermore, whale behavior reinforces this cautious stance, as despite not having sold massively, they have not shown significant buying intentions either. During periods of genuine breakout, large holders typically accumulate assets by taking advantage of price weakness, which has not happened on the Hedera blockchain. This institutional indecision, coupled with negative money flow, could invalidate the recovery structure before reaching the target expected by technical analysts.
Imminent breakdown due to lack of institutional liquidity in Hedera
On the other hand, the divergence observed between the Money Flow Index and price action reveals that retail buyers are sustaining the price. While the price declined, this volume indicator showed an upward trend, evidencing that investors are buying the dips constantly but insufficiently for a rally. However, financial history shows that retail momentum rarely manages to sustain a bullish movement without the backing of large capital, especially in high-volatility environments.
Nevertheless, positive market sentiment has experienced a ninety-four percent collapse in just three days, reaching its lowest monthly level. This drop is much more severe than the correction suffered in early January, where a smaller reduction in optimism caused a fourteen percent decline in the asset market value. If this historical correlation remains valid, selling pressure could intensify drastically in the coming days, testing the patience of investors and long-term holders.
Do 0.102 dollars represent the last line of defense for the asset?
Therefore, the immediate future of the price strictly depends on its ability to make daily closes above the current support zone. A decisive break below this level would invalidate the technical pattern, which could drag the price towards 0.094 dollars in the first instance as a safety zone. If panic takes over investors due to the lack of positive news, the asset could retreat to 0.073 dollars in a scenario of total market capitulation.
For the bullish scenario to regain relevance, it is imperative that the price manages to reclaim the range between 0.118 and 0.124 dollars. Only through a return of positive sentiment and a real increase in institutional buying volume, could one dream of reaching the neckline at 0.135 dollars to confirm the breakout. As long as these conditions are not met, HBAR support levels will continue to be a high-risk zone that traders must monitor with extreme prudence.
