Whale wallets accumulated roughly 454.7 million ADA—about $161 million—between late 2025 and January 2026, according to on‑chain data. The buying came during a roughly 19% price decline and coincided with sustained retail selling, creating a potential inflection for ADA’s price trajectory.
Data showed wallets holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA accounted for the ~454.7 million token accumulation. That buying pressure occurred despite a general market dip, suggesting large holders targeted weakness at an average accumulation price near $0.354 per ADA.
In December 2025, a block of selling—about $100 million—was distributed over three days and helped trigger a 6% drop and a breach of key support. In early January 2026, wallets in the 1 million–10 million ADA band re‑entered, adding about 100 million ADA (roughly $36 million). Addresses holding more than 1 billion ADA began building positions around Jan. 14, 2026, lifting combined holdings from 1.92 billion ADA to 2.93 billion ADA during the correction.
What’s in the near future for ADA?
Analysts noted bullish RSI divergence, a strengthening MACD, a falling‑wedge formation and a recent golden cross—signals that historically preceded rallies. At the same time, ADA was constrained under resistance near $0.401, with short‑term support tested around $0.33–$0.34 and downside scenarios cited as low as $0.27.
Perpetual futures showed about $22.12 million in leveraged short exposure, and one exchange indicated short liquidation risk roughly 2.5x larger than longs. That set conditions for a short squeeze, with liquidation pressure likely to build near $0.37 and intensify above $0.39.
These dynamics have immediate implications: concentrated whale buying can reduce available liquidity and magnify moves, while prior distribution events demonstrated the downside impact large sellers can exert.
Around 60% of ADA supply was staked, the Voltaire governance model was nearing operationalization, and projects such as the Midnight privacy network remained on the roadmap.
MVRV over 30 days registered negative territory, indicating many holders were at an unrealized loss—a condition that can dampen supply pressure as holders wait for recovery. Analysts referenced upside targets of $0.6386, $0.9358 and $1.3285, conditional on technical validation and continued ecosystem progress.
Investors are now turning their attention to whether sustained whale conviction and upcoming network upgrades will trigger a decisive breakout above $0.401 or whether further distribution and macro pressure will extend the correction.
