The Hedera (HBAR) cryptocurrency remains under heavy bearish pressure, accumulating a 47% decline over the last three months. According to financial analysts, the asset faces an additional 30% correction risk due to the weakening of Hedera network liquidity, which has been severely hampered by a drastic drop in Total Value Locked (TVL) across its main protocols.
Ananda Banerjee, a financial market specialist, points out that Hedera’s TVL has plummeted from $122 million to just $56 million. This 50% contraction, evidencing a flight of Hedera network liquidity, suggests that users are withdrawing their capital from DeFi applications, weakening the asset’s fundamental structure while institutional demand remains largely absent from the current market environment.
ETF inactivity and institutional sentiment headwinds
This scenario is further aggravated by the zero-inflow activity in HBAR spot ETFs over the past two weeks. Consequently, the cryptocurrency lacks the necessary institutional backing to reverse its negative trend, leaving the price vulnerable to new lows while the On-Balance Volume (OBV) breaks through key support levels that have been in place since October of last year.
Furthermore, although the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator shows selective accumulation by some large investors, retail demand remains significantly weak. Nevertheless, as long as institutional flows stay stagnant, any recovery attempt will be structurally limited, confirming that market conviction is fragile and that sellers maintain absolute control over the current price action and overall trend.
Can HBAR defend the $0.080 support level to avoid a major collapse?
From a technical perspective, the asset remains trapped within a descending channel that guides its price toward dangerous levels. To validate any stabilization, the price must hold above $0.076, thus avoiding a Fibonacci slide that could project the token’s value toward $0.062 or even as low as $0.043 in the coming trading sessions if selling intensifies.
However, for a genuine trend reversal, Hedera needs to reclaim the $0.107 level with significant trading volume. If Hedera network liquidity does not bounce back through a reactivation of the DeFi ecosystem, distribution pressure will continue to accelerate, invalidating any bullish thesis and forcing investors to seek refuge in assets with much more robust and stable on-chain metrics and demand.
On the other hand, the bullish divergence in the CMF offers a small ray of hope for long-term “bulls” and supporters. Also, a surprise reactivation of ETF inflows could act as the necessary catalyst, allowing HBAR to break out of the bearish channel and regain the trust of a community that is currently cautiously watching the constant erosion of its market value.
