Research and brokerage firm Bernstein has officially declared the traditional crypto market cycle obsolete, issuing a new Bitcoin price prediction targeting $150,000 for the year 2026. According to reports cited by Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, the historical four-year pattern has been definitively broken, giving way to a new era characterized by institutional maturity and a market structure fundamentally different from previous ones.
Despite the approximately 30% correction Bitcoin experienced since early October, analysts highlight a revealing data point: ETF outflows were merely 5%. This demonstrates unusual conviction on the part of large holders, who have not capitulated to recent volatility. Bernstein anticipates the asset will resume its bull run soon, setting not only the 2026 target but a potential cycle peak of $200,000 for the year 2027, extending expected gains.
Looking toward a much more distant horizon, the firm maintains a long-term target of one million dollars per coin by 2033. This optimism is based on the observation that institutional buying is much “stickier” than retail investment, acting as an effective counterweight against panic selling that used to dictate previous cycles. The narrative of programmed scarcity is being complemented by sustained and strategic corporate and financial demand.
This paradigm shift suggests we are entering an “elongated bull market,” where halving temporal rules carry less weight than macroeconomic liquidity. Analysts at the London Crypto Club add that an imminent liquidity injection by the Federal Reserve could act as a decisive catalyst. A continuous cycle of interest rate cuts is expected, accompanied by balance sheet expansion to monetize the US fiscal deficit.
Are We Facing the Start of an Institutional-Driven Bull Supercycle?
On the other hand, David Brickell and Chris Mills point out that the central bank is positioned to deliver a “dovish surprise” benefiting risk assets. This structural tide of liquidity is difficult to counter, and could drive the world’s largest cryptocurrency sharply higher in the new year. The combination of loose monetary policy and institutional adoption creates an environment conducive for the asset to challenge its all-time highs without previous time constraints.
From a technical perspective, the leading cryptocurrency holds above the critical support of $78,000, a line in the sand separating a healthy correction from a major collapse. If Bitcoin manages to recover the $102,000 zone, it would demonstrate renewed strength, while overcoming the resistance of $108,000 would confirm the extension toward new maximum prices. RSI momentum has cooled significantly, indicating a reset of overbought conditions.
However, it is crucial to maintain caution while the price stabilizes near the 20-week simple moving average. The economy of market flows suggests that, as long as the $78,000 level is maintained, the general structure remains one of consolidation within a macro bullish trend. The upward slope of the 50-week moving average reinforces the thesis that the long-term trend remains intact despite short-term noise.
Finally, the market seems to be transitioning toward a maturity phase where extreme volatility is dampened by strong hands. It will be fundamental to watch if technical support holds firm against upcoming Fed monetary policy announcements. The breaking of the traditional temporal pattern could redefine investment strategies for the next decade, forcing traders to focus more on global liquidity than on the halving calendar.
