Major digital assets Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced notable price oscillation following the release of the latest labor data placing US unemployment at 4.6%, its highest level in four years. Analysts at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed that while there was slight growth in sectors like healthcare, the federal government continued to lose jobs, generating a mixed reaction in global financial markets. Initial volatility reflects investor sensitivity to key macroeconomic indicators.
The report, which combines data from October and November due to the 43-day government shutdown, revealed a complex economic reality. While 64,000 jobs were added in November, October suffered a significant loss of 105,000 positions, and previous months also saw downward revisions. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $87,152 after dipping briefly, while Ethereum struggled to reclaim the $3,000 mark. These figures underscore the current fragility of the recovery in the North American labor market.
On the other hand, despite the immediate drop, prediction markets maintain cautious optimism about the future of the leading cryptocurrency. On platforms like Myriad, users assign a 69% probability that Bitcoin will reclaim $100,000 before falling to lower levels. This sentiment suggests investors view current economic weakness as a potential catalyst for looser monetary policies that benefit risk assets. Confidence in a medium-term recovery persists despite immediate uncertainty.
Labor instability redefines institutional investor expectations
Lee Hardman, senior currency economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, noted that the bank expects to see multiple rate cuts heading into 2026. According to his analysis, recent comments from John C. Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, indicate there are no widespread supply chain bottlenecks and housing inflation is slowing. These fundamental macroeconomic projections could weaken the dollar and favor cryptocurrencies.
Likewise, Bitcoin’s market structure shows an interesting divergence among different types of holders. Unrealized losses for entities that have accumulated more than 1,000 BTC in recent months have reached levels not seen since 2023, indicating that new entrants are absorbing most of the selling pressure. In contrast, older “whales” remain in profit, suggesting a transfer of wealth. The behavior of large holders remains a determining factor for price stability.
Will a weak dollar continue to drive digital asset prices?
The US economy appears to be heading toward a scenario of gradual slowing, which has historically served as a tailwind for Bitcoin. A weaker dollar typically improves global liquidity conditions, making dollar-denominated risk assets more attractive to international investors seeking alternative stores of value. The inverse correlation between dollar strength and the crypto market remains valid.
Finally, inflation is expected to drop just under 2.5% next year before returning to the Fed’s 2% goal in 2027. This environment of looser monetary policy could provide the necessary fuel for Bitcoin and Ethereum to resume their bullish trend once short-term volatility caused by jobs data dissipates. The long-term horizon continues to depend on the evolution of federal interest rates.
