Bitcoin is struggling to exceed $70,000 after closing February with a 14% decline, marking its fifth consecutive monthly loss according to CoinGlass data. This technical pattern, not seen since the 2018 bear cycle, places the digital asset at a critical juncture against the historical resistance of its current weekly moving average.
The current price action shows a confluence of technical barriers preventing immediate recovery toward new global all-time highs. The 200-week exponential moving average located at $68,330 acts as the primary ceiling that buyers must pierce. Since without a solid weekly close the market remains vulnerable to corrections, monitoring support levels is imperative for all types of market participants.
The ghost of 2018 haunts the current Bitcoin structure
Analyzing the correlation with global liquidity, we observe that the upcoming Federal Reserve meetings will be decisive. The FOMC calendar indicates critical deliberations for March 17, where monetary policy will be evaluated. Despite the pessimism, the stability of interest rates will define capital flow toward digital reserve assets and corporate treasury during this specific financial quarter.
On the regulatory front, the full implementation of the MiCA Regulation in Europe establishes a surveillance framework that could mitigate volatility. The adoption of standardized regulations in multiple jurisdictions offers legal certainty for capital reentry. This European mandate demands certain supervision reports specific to the end of March, which could significantly strengthen long-term structural confidence.
Monthly profitability data reveals that, after five red candles, Bitcoin usually experiences a violent rebound driven by scarcity. This cyclical dynamic suggests a possible reversal in April if the correlation with previous halving cycles holds. However, the acquisition cost for short-term holders remains a drag that must be cleared through a final capitulation phase before the next leg up.
Will global liquidity manage to reverse Bitcoin’s downward trend?
Leverage decompression in derivatives markets has reduced open interest from record levels to more manageable figures. This cleanup of excessively leveraged long positions sets the stage for a more organic price movement. Therefore, avoiding the liquidation cascades that characterized the months prior, volatility could stabilize in a narrow range before a possible bullish breakout occurs.
Capital flows into exchange-traded funds also show signs of stabilization after weeks of constant outflows. The resilience of long-term institutional buyers suggests that underlying demand remains intact despite the recent price action. Given that the psychological support of $60,000 could act as a firm floor, the thesis of a rapid recovery is gaining significant traction among analysts.
Another relevant factor is the decrease in miner reserves, who have adjusted their operations after the halving impact. The reduction in selling pressure from mining contributes to a limited supply scenario on major exchanges. Consequently, faced with any moderate increase in global demand for scarce assets, Bitcoin could experience an accelerated revaluation during the coming weeks of this year.
Despite the resistance at $69,000 and $70,000, the maturity of the blockchain infrastructure allows for a more efficient absorption of orders. The market is now watching if March will break the negative streak or if it will serve as the ultimate base for a parabolic rally during the second quarter. Monitoring employment and consumer price data will be essential to anticipate the immediate future.
