VanEck’s report identifies a 4% decline in Bitcoin’s hashrate for the month ending, the largest monthly fall since April 2024. The firm frames the contraction as a possible contrarian bullish signal linked to miner capitulation dynamics, a pattern investors may consider when reassessing risk and product exposures.
VanEck published a note highlighting the hashrate contraction as a noteworthy network signal. The report interprets the decline as evidence that less efficient miners are reducing or stopping operations, which lowers total computational power on the Bitcoin network. VanEck describes this reduction as a contrarian indicator that can reflect miner capitulation and, in some historical cases, mark the early stages of a market bottom.
VanEck’s analysis uses data back to 2014 to compare hashrate trajectories with forward returns. The firm reports that 30-day hashrate contractions preceded positive 90-day Bitcoin returns about 65% of the time, versus 54% when hashrate was expanding. Extending the window, periods with negative 90-day hashrate growth were followed by positive 180-day returns in roughly 77% of instances, with an average gain of 72% across those cases, as per the report.
VanEck frames these figures as statistical tendencies rather than certainties, noting that the signal’s predictive power improves over longer horizons in their sample.
Implications for investors, products and compliance
For institutional investors and product managers, the report suggests treating the hashrate contraction as one input among many. VanEck recommends integrating this indicator into broader portfolio, product-design and risk-management frameworks rather than relying on it alone.
Operational implications include reassessing liquidity buffers and custody plans if miner selling pressure subsides; compliance teams should note that changes in miner behavior can alter on-chain supply dynamics, affecting NAV stress tests for spot products. The analysis underscores the need for documented processes that map on-chain signals to product-level actions, including KYC/AML and custody readiness for increased flows.
VanEck presents the December hashrate drop as a potential contrarian bullish signal backed by multi-year historical correlations, while stressing it is not an infallible predictor. Market participants should monitor forward returns and on-chain metrics over the coming 90–180 days to validate whether the pattern holds for this episode.
