Bitcoin has started the week struggling to sustain recent gains, erasing the slight weekend rally and settling into a tight range around the psychological $90,000 mark. According to a recent report by Bitfinex analysts, the leading cryptocurrency shows worrying relative weakness compared to traditional stock markets, driven primarily by tepid spot demand and structural softness that leaves the asset exposed to macroeconomic volatility.
During Monday’s US session, Bitcoin’s price retreated approximately 1% over the last 24 hours, trading near $90,500 as stock markets closed lower. Bitfinex analysts highlighted in their report that, with spot demand weakening, the market faces a significantly lighter buy-side backdrop. This situation reduces immediate price support and increases sensitivity to external shocks, creating a “fragile setup” scenario heading into the year-end.
Alternative asset performance was mixed, with Ethereum (ETH) slightly outperforming Bitcoin and reaching its strongest relative price in over a month, despite slipping in dollar terms. On the other hand, specific projects like Zcash and the institutional blockchain Canton Network managed double-digit gains, defying the general crypto market trend, which saw a 0.8% decline in the broader CoinDesk 20 index.
Data presented by Bitfinex reveals warning signs reinforcing the cautious view. Persistent outflows are observed from US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, with traders selling into rallies rather than accumulating. Furthermore, there are currently over seven million BTC in an unrealized loss position, a figure echoing the bearish sentiment observed during the 2022 consolidation period. Although capital inflows remain positive, at about $8.69 billion monthly, they are far from historical peak levels.
The divergence between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 is palpable; while US stocks hover near record highs, Bitcoin remains trapped in a sideways range. This decoupling underscores a lack of risk appetite specific to cryptocurrencies in the current environment. US 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.19%, their highest level in three months, driven by fears of trouble in Japanese bonds, adding pressure to the global economy and reducing the incentive for non-yielding risk assets.
Will the Federal Reserve meeting manage to reverse the current trend?
Investor attention now focuses on the Federal Reserve’s final meeting of the year. While the market has already priced in a 25 basis point cut, any messaging regarding future trajectory could stir the waters. Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX, noted that any easing in financial conditions or a weakening US dollar could provide necessary tailwinds. However, a hawkish surprise regarding the pace of monetary policy could amplify downside pressure on crypto markets.
The combination of rising bond yields and insufficient spot demand creates a challenging environment. The sell-off in government debt in Europe and the rise of Japanese bond yields toward 2% are reshaping global capital flows. These external macroeconomic factors weigh on general risk appetite, making it difficult for Bitcoin to find the necessary traction to break its current resistance without a new fundamental catalyst.
The outlook suggests Bitcoin could continue trading with fragility as institutional investors stay on the sidelines or sell into strength. The lack of a solid buying cushion means any negative news could have a disproportionate impact on price. It will be crucial to monitor ETF flows and Fed messaging this Wednesday to determine if the market can recover its bullish structure or if it is heading toward a deeper correction before the end of 2025.
