Bitcoin has started the last month of the year facing a statistical hurdle that it has never managed to overcome in its recent history. Despite closing November in the red, investor sentiment and the current market structure suggest an imminent trend change. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe highlights that, unlike previous cycles, there are fundamental deviations that favor a rebound.
The cryptocurrency’s price has managed to recover and consolidate above its monthly volume-weighted average price. Recent technical data indicates a massive reduction in open interest from $94 billion to $60 billion dollars. This healthy reset of leverage in the market creates a much cleaner and more stable technical base for a sustainable bullish continuation.
Structural cycle evolution and key macroeconomic divergences
Deep liquidity clusters have migrated significantly from downside liquidation zones toward higher price targets. Currently, analyses show that there are $3 billion in accumulated short positions that would be liquidated if the price reaches $96,000. Furthermore, overcoming the psychological barrier of $100,000 would trigger massive additional liquidations worth $7 billion.
On the other hand, M2 money supply velocity has flattened, signaling a possible loss of momentum in the global financial engine. However, analyst EndGame Macro observed that the market reflects aggressive buying, although accumulation is not necessarily sustainable in the short term. This divergence is typical of late-cycle phases, where risk assets become stretched.
Will Bitcoin be able to overcome history and hit new highs in 2025?
Inflows into spot exchange-traded funds have introduced a constant structural demand that alters traditional four-year patterns. This phenomenon has raised the effective price floor, accelerating price discovery and partially decoupling the asset from expectations based solely on time. The underlying economy now plays a distinct role, with correlations favoring expansion.
Michaël van de Poppe argues that the current cycle resembles liquidity expansion phases seen in mid-2016. According to his detailed analysis, we are nowhere near a market top and remain in a phase of potentially exorbitant returns. The correlation between business cycle strength and crypto assets remains remarkably clear and positive for bulls.
December’s performance will depend less on historical seasonality and more on the new structural forces dominating the landscape. Liquidity rotation and shifts in macroeconomic correlations will be determinant in knowing if bullish positioning can overcome general market fundamentals. Investors are watching closely to see if this time the new dynamics will manage to break the year-end curse.
