TL;DR
- Institutional Investments vs. Price Expectations: Despite a significant influx of institutional investments and the introduction of US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, Bitcoin’s price has risen to $71,000, which is a 50% increase but still below the expected $100,000 milestone.
- Selling Pressure from Long-Term Holders: The decrease in Bitcoin holdings by long-term holders from 57% to 54% has led to the sale of approximately 630,000 Bitcoins, creating selling pressure that has tempered the price rise.
- Potential Catalysts for Future Growth: Edwards identifies three factors that could drive Bitcoin’s price up: increased buying by ETFs, reduced selling by long-term holders, and increased US liquidity.
On June 7, 2024, Charles Edwards, the esteemed founder of Capriole Investments, took to social media platform X to unravel the intricacies behind Bitcoin’s elusive $100,000 target.
Why aren't we at $100,000 yet?
US Bitcoin ETFs have acquired 200% of the Bitcoin mined since launch in mid-January.
At $71K, Bitcoin is up 50% since the ETFs launched, but many are asking why not more? pic.twitter.com/v86Aagvys4
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) June 7, 2024
Despite witnessing a remarkable influx of institutional investment and the introduction of US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have accumulated double the amount of Bitcoin mined since their launch in January, the price of this cryptocurrency remains steady at $71,000. While this marks a significant 50% surge, it falls slightly short of the lofty expectations set for it.
Long-Term Holders’ Impact
Edwards delves into the dynamics of long-term holders, whose dwindling Bitcoin share from 57% to 54% signifies a substantial 630,000 Bitcoin sell-off. This outflow from veteran investors dampens the bullish momentum spurred by fresh institutional capital, tempering the anticipated price ascent.
Bitcoin Halving’s Delayed Effect
In April 2024, the Bitcoin Halving cut the daily Bitcoin issuance in half, but the true effects are still unknown. Edwards predicts a widening gap between the demand for spot ETFs and the limited Bitcoin supply, foreseeing a powerful price surge once institutional investment trends evolve.
A Triad of Growth Catalysts
Edwards pinpoints three pivotal factors that could catalyze Bitcoin’s value surge: escalated ETF purchases, a slowdown in long-term holder sales, and an upswing in US liquidity. The alignment of these elements, he posits, could propel Bitcoin towards the much-anticipated $100,000 mark.
Optimism for the Future
With Bitcoin trading at around $70,800, marking a 69.13% increase since the year’s start, Edwards remains bullish. His analysis suggests that the interplay of increased ETF activity, long-term holder retention, and liquidity expansion could soon converge, setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next major price leap.
In conclusion, Edwards’ thread offers a nuanced perspective on Bitcoin’s current valuation and its potential trajectory. As the market digests his insights, all eyes are on the evolving landscape of digital assets, waiting for the next wave of growth that could finally breach the $100,000 threshold.
