Following a decision that has generated significant internal division, the Federal Reserve approved a 25 basis point interest rate cut this Wednesday. Despite this monetary stimulus, Bitcoin’s fragile range keeps the digital asset trading below the psychological barrier of $100,000. Recent data from analytics firm Glassnode warns of weak structural conditions, suggesting the market faces persistent selling pressure preventing an immediate bullish breakout.
The monetary policy decision was not unanimous, reflecting a 9-3 vote that highlights internal uncertainty regarding the financial future. Although the market anticipated this move, the hawkish rhetoric surrounding inflation and growth suggests that the pace of future cuts could slow heading into 2026. Therefore, it is possible the price may sell on the news, remaining sideways until a new fundamental catalyst emerges to drive real demand.
According to on-chain metrics revealed by Glassnode, the leading cryptocurrency is technically trapped between two critical current valuation levels. The price oscillates dangerously between the short-term cost basis of $102,700 and the “True Market Mean” located at $81,300. This price compression has caused realized losses to surge to $555 million daily, an alarming figure not seen since the collapse of the FTX exchange in 2022.
The current situation reveals growing structural tension where time seems to be working against the most optimistic bulls. The longer the price remains pinned within this vulnerable zone, the greater the unrealized losses accumulated by recent investors. This high-stress financial environment considerably increases the likelihood of forced selling in the short term, as holder patience begins to wear thin given the lack of momentum.
On the other hand, CryptoQuant analysis highlights a notable divergence between the price increase and the decline in futures open interest. Although Bitcoin managed to rally briefly above $94,000 before the announcement, this move was driven primarily by spot demand. Historically, sustained bullish momentum requires active derivatives market participation, and the current lack of leverage suggests the rally lacks the necessary strength to hold.
The macroeconomic context adds another layer of complexity, as Fed members remain concerned about the resilience of inflation. If growth expectations for the US economy weaken, appetite for risk assets could diminish further in the near future. Thus, the disconnect between investor expectations and monetary reality could act as a formidable ceiling for any price recovery attempts in the coming weeks.
Will the market be able to reclaim the key $100,000 level?
In addition to macroeconomic pressures, the behavior of long-term investors is exerting significant resistance on the market. Holders with more than one year of tenure are realizing profits at a rate of over $1 billion daily. This massive token distribution, combined with the capitulation of top buyers, is effectively preventing the asset from retaking the key resistance zone located between $95,000 and $102,000.
In conclusion, the immediate outlook for the primary cryptocurrency seems challenging, with multiple technical and fundamental factors aligned against a rapid rise. If they fail to reclaim the short-term holder cost basis, the risk of a deeper correction remains latent. However, investors must closely watch institutional capital flows, as any shift in global liquidity could rapidly alter this stagnation dynamic.
