TL;DR
- On-chain demand has plunged almost 50% in 30 days—institutions slashed purchases and short-term holders offloaded 800k BTC, dragging the price to $104.7k.
- CryptoQuant warns that a breach of the $92k “realized price” support could trigger algorithmic sell-offs, margin calls, and cascading liquidations.
- Traders are hedging with straddles, tightening stop-losses around $101k, and watching the $100k mark as the line in the sand.
CryptoQuant’s latest research has sent shockwaves through the crypto world, warning that Bitcoin’s relentless rally may be hitting a rough patch. According to the analytics firm, apparent on-chain demand has collapsed by nearly 50% from its May highs, igniting fears of a 12–18% pullback toward the $92,000 mark. Traders and investors are at a crucial point: will Bitcoin maintain its position above important support levels or fall due to decreasing interest? Everyone will be watching Bitcoin’s capacity to stay above $100,000.
Demand Descent Raises Red Flags
In the last 30 days, the observed demand growth fell from about 228,000 BTC to only 118,000 BTC. Institutional flows have been the hardest hit, with whales and U.S.-listed ETFs slashing purchases by over half, while short-term holders offloaded some 800,000 BTC since late May. This group retreat has caused price action to hover around $104,700, which is a 6.5% drop from the late-May high of $112,000, creating a situation for increased volatility.
The $92K “Soft Patch” Scenario
CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, labels the current phase a “soft patch” that could derail the bull market if demand deterioration continues. A breach could trigger algorithmic sell orders, margin calls, and cascading liquidations, potentially ushering in Bitcoin’s deepest correction since surpassing six figures.
Technical Tightrope for Bulls and Bears
On the technical front, Bitcoin is flirting with its 20-day Bollinger Band midline and struggling to reclaim $108,000 resistance. The RSI is close to neutral, and the narrowing Bollinger Bands suggest that volatility might increase soon. Market makers and derivatives desks are already hedging their books, deploying straddles and strangles to profit from the implied uncertainty.
What’s Next for Traders?
With demand signals flashing amber, traders are adopting a mix of defensive and opportunistic strategies. Some are beefing up stop-loss orders around $101,000, eyeing the lower Bollinger boundary for a rebound.
Others anticipate a short squeeze if the price dips below the “realized price” anchor, potentially sending a relief rally. In the end, everyone will focus on whether Bitcoin can stay above $100,000. A decisive break could redefine the trajectory of this mid-2025 bull cycle.
