Ethena price prediction enters a cautious phase after ENA fell about 22% over the last seven days, a decline tied to weakening demand for Ethena’s synthetic dollar and concentrated supply moves. The drop reflects both protocol-level pressures and technical sell signals, and the token’s near-term path will hinge on USDe liquidity management and the market’s ability to absorb large unlocks.
The recent sell-off stems from multiple, converging drivers. Data shows USDe’s circulating market cap contracted sharply from roughly $14–15 billion at its peak to about $6.7 billion, triggering a rotation into more established stablecoins and weakening ENA-linked demand. Large scheduled token unlocks have further increased sell pressure, including a 40 million ENA unlock (about $10.34 million) and a separate 171.88 million ENA tranche; on-chain flows include a 23.3 million ENA transfer (≈$4.74 million) from Ethena Labs to an OTC counterparty.
Market technicals compounded the move: ENA retested near-term support around $0.20 and showed bearish momentum with an RSI near 32 and On-Balance Volume divergences, while whale selling of nearly 100 million ENA (approximately $28 million) reduced conviction among short-term holders.
Protocol revenue has also eroded, with mint fees and earnings declining from about $4 million in August 2024 to roughly $50,000 by November, lowering perceived sustainability of USDe’s yield model.
Ethena price prediction: scenarios and catalysts
Each scenario depends on market-wide liquidity, Ethena’s management of token supply shocks, and macro/regulatory conditions; names and price projections cited in market reports vary, reflecting high dispersion of views.
Ethena is a synthetic dollar protocol on Ethereum, and ENA is its governance token with a maximum supply of 15 billion. USDe’s peg and yield are maintained via a delta-hedging strategy: the protocol shorts perpetual futures against deposited collateral to neutralize price exposure while earning funding-rate income and staking yields. Delta-hedging here means offsetting directional exposure in spot collateral by taking opposing positions in derivatives.
Key risks include dependence on favorable perpetual funding rates, counterparty and exchange solvency risk, collateral concentration, and complex leverage loops such as the Pendle–Aave interactions that concentrate exposure. Past liquidity fragmentation produced a brief on-exchange de-peg to $0.65 on one venue, and regulatory pressure has already affected operations in some jurisdictions.
ENA’s immediate outlook is guarded: the token must weather ongoing unlocks and stabilize USDe flows before a durable recovery can form.
