Hedera’s HBAR reached the projected breakdown target at $0.113, placing the token at a decisive technical crossroads. HBAR price now faces a fast-moving test: either reclaim key resistances to signal a recovery or break lower toward an estimated $0.095, a decline of roughly 16%.
The completed head-and-shoulders breakdown left HBAR sitting on the $0.113 support as the immediate pivot. A reclaim and sustained hold above $0.13 would indicate renewed buyer conviction, while surpassing the stronger resistance at $0.155 is required to validate a meaningful trend reversal. A confirmed break above $0.155 could open targets near $0.16 and $0.18, while a decisive breach beneath $0.113 would increase the probability of a fall toward $0.095.
The assessment leans on several technical indicators. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is referenced as a gauge of institutional accumulation; a move above 0.07 would signal pronounced inflows. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaking and holding above 50 would mark a momentum shift. A ‘death cross’ is cited as a bearish confirmatory pattern.
Technical picture: HBAR price key levels and indicators
Sentiment among large holders is mixed, creating a bifurcated supply-demand picture. Some retail and opportunistic buyers show interest at current levels, while notable wallet activity indicates exits by large holders. Institutional outflows over recent weeks have been highlighted as a driver of the recent weakness.
Lower liquidity and elevated selling volume would amplify downside if $0.113 fails to hold; a volume-backed move higher would be necessary to convince risk-sensitive desks and crypto treasuries to re-enter.
For traders, the tactical roadmap is clear: short-term longs require a validated reclaim of $0.13 with volume confirmation and improving CMF and RSI readings to justify carry. Risk managers at institutional desks should monitor concentrated wallet movements and funding/futures open interest for signs of liquidation risk.
A protective scenario for treasuries would be to await a confirmed break above $0.155 before scaling exposure, given the risk of further downside flagged by bearish patterns and continued outflows.
HBAR now sits at a binary technical decision: reclaim $0.13 and prove strength toward $0.155, or break $0.113 and risk a drop to about $0.095
