The Hedera market is going through a phase of high technical tension after remaining trapped in a downtrend that has lasted for over a month. Currently, the asset is seeking to attract enough demand to reverse its decline, while derivatives traders closely watch the $0.1035 level. According to analyst Aaryamann Shrivastava, a 12% upward move could trigger massive short position liquidations, effectively transforming the current negative sentiment.
The structure of futures portfolios shows a predominant bearish bias, where short contracts significantly outweigh longs in terms of exposure. However, this technical imbalance often serves as fuel for a “short squeeze,” an event that would force bears to cover their positions. Thus, the HBAR price could experience a sudden injection of buying pressure, altering the downward trajectory that has dominated the last trading sessions.
Despite the lack of conviction in immediate buying volume, certain on-chain indicators suggest a subtle shift is occurring. The Chaikin Money Flow has formed a bullish divergence, indicating that selling pressure is decreasing despite new lows. Therefore, the native criptocurrency of Hedera is currently in a tentative accumulation phase, waiting for a catalyst to confirm the entry of fresh capital into the network.
Technical divergences and capital flow in Hedera
The behavior of capital within the network reflects a slowdown in outflows, although inflows are not yet dominant. For a lasting recovery to be validated, it is imperative for the CMF indicator to cross the zero line, signaling that institutional demand is outpacing supply. This signal remains tentative and not decisive, keeping investors in a cautious stance while the asset trades near the $0.0903 level.
On the other hand, consolidation above the $0.0901 support is vital to mitigate the risks of a deeper price drop. If the price manages to remain stable and capital flows improve, the path toward the $0.1030 resistance would become much more probable. Reaching this target would put sellers’ capital at risk, potentially generating a cascade effect of forced closures on exchange platforms.
Which levels will determine the failure of the bullish thesis?
If general market conditions deteriorate, the risk of current support yielding to bearish pressure remains high for the asset. A break below $0.0901 would invalidate any short-term recovery structure, projecting drops toward the $0.0830 zone. This scenario would confirm the continuation of the bearish channel, leaving the asset vulnerable to further pullbacks toward $0.0751 over the coming weeks.
Likewise, low retail investor participation continues to be an obstacle to regaining confidence in the ecosystem. Without a notable increase in transaction volume, futures bears will have little incentive to close their contracts prematurely. In this way, the price faces a major psychological barrier, which can only be overcome through a real increase in demand for digital assets in the current environment.
Ultimately, Hedera’s immediate future depends on its ability to transform its current weakness into technical breakout momentum. The short position liquidations act as a Sword of Damocles over traders, waiting for the exact moment when volatility decides the asset’s direction. The weekly close is expected to provide the necessary clarity for participants to adjust their strategies ahead of possible trend changes.
