JPMorgan forecasts Bitcoin at $165,000 for 2025, grounding the estimate in gold’s past momentum and a $140,000–$165,000 price window. The projection matters to fund managers, corporate treasurers and regulators because it links liquidity flows, corporate demand and U.S. state support to that range.
The $165,000 figure rests on four premises: Bitcoin must beat gold in the second half of 2025, corporate buyers must expand their holdings, U.S. state support must strengthen and the two assets must stay positively correlated as global liquidity rises and interest rates fall.
Institutional demand and recent market behavior frame the thesis. MicroStrategy’s stash of about 214,400 BTC as evidence of steady corporate buying. From November 2022 to November 2024, Bitcoin and gold moved roughly together, but they split apart in early 2025: by 31 March 2025 gold had climbed 16% while Bitcoin had dropped more than 6%. The 30-day rolling correlation swung between 0.10 and 0.30 on the positive side and between −0.05 and −0.15 on the negative side.
The keys to Bitcoin’s rise
Correlation measures how two assets move relative to each other; 1 means perfect lock step, −1 means perfect opposition. steady corporate buying would push prices higher as well as entrench Bitcoin as a balance sheet asset.
Global liquidity growth and rate cuts must occur for prices to reach $140,000–$165,000. Favourable rules can reverse; a regulatory clamp down or court ruling can wreck the thesis. A macro shock, a major corporate default or a protocol security breach can erase the forecast.
2025 is the critical year for the thesis. The next signal to watch is whether Bitcoin stabilises inside the stated price band and whether its correlation with gold turns reliably positive—both conditions must hold for the liquidity and adoption story to play out.
