Monero (XMR) traded around $326–$329 as it attempted its first recovery following a roughly 60% decline over the prior month. The price action matters because a death cross has appeared on hourly charts and risks forming on longer daily averages, a technical development that would increase downside pressure on liquidity and open derivatives positions.
In the short term, Monero’s intraday charts already reflect significant technical deterioration. A death cross occurred, coinciding with a nearly 17% drop in trading volume and a price decline of over 15% on the same day. This combination weakened buying momentum and left the token trading under pressure, with immediate resistance around $335.
As a result of this movement, the recovery margin was limited by a technical ceiling in the $357 area. Until the price manages to consolidate above these levels, the overall outlook will remain fragile.
In this context, the critical support level near $291 appears as a key level to defend. A sustained break below this zone would open the door to an extension of the correction towards $265, deepening a decline that has already accumulated nearly 60% in the last month. For now, the immediate trading range remains relatively narrow, between $326 and $329, reflecting caution among traders.
A positive scenario despite Monero’s recent history
However, not all signs point in the same direction. Momentum indicators began to show a bullish divergence in the Money Flow Index (MFI), with higher lows in the indicator even as the price made lower lows. According to analysts, this pattern suggests that the intensity of selling pressure may be waning, which sometimes precedes periods of stabilization or short-lived technical rebounds.
Even so, this contrarian signal alone is not enough to reverse the prevailing bearish picture. The market continues to be constrained by weak volume and the lack of clear catalysts to revive sustained demand. Therefore, any short-term recovery could face rapid selling at resistance levels.
From the derivatives side, the reading is also defensive. Open interest has fallen by around 57% since mid-January, reflecting a marked withdrawal from speculative leverage and reduced liquidity provision. This decline in activity suggests that many participants opted to reduce their exposure in the face of increased volatility and technical uncertainty.
Despite this context, some analyses highlight that Monero managed to outperform other larger-cap tokens during certain phases of the sell-off. This leaves a mixed technical outlook for traders, who must balance potential re-entry opportunities with stricter risk management.
