Polymarket markets price an 86–87% probability that a Lighter airdrop will occur by the end of 2025, with December 29 seen as the likeliest TGE date. The spike in prediction-market activity coincides with Hyperliquid’s pre-market listing of LIT, which has provided early price discovery and intensified competition in perpetual DEXs.
Polymarket pricing reflects strong conviction on post-TGE outcomes: 87% odds for a market cap above $1 billion, 84% for above $2 billion, and 52% for above $3 billion. Pre-market valuations have been reported near $3 billion, with fully diluted valuations estimated in the $4–$5.5 billion range, reinforcing the market’s expectation set around LIT’s debut.
On-chain behavior underpins the speculation: Lighter has moved roughly 25% of its LIT supply — about 250 million tokens — alongside transfers to new addresses and the opening of wallet-allocation forms and point redistributions. Traders interpret these operational steps as preparation for an airdrop and a token generation event, aligning on-chain activity with the prediction-market view.
Hyperliquid’s pre-market trading in LIT has anchored price discovery around $4, implying an FDV of approximately $4 billion, with other venues showing similar mid-$3 figures. The listing carries immediate product-market implications by setting expectations for valuation and liquidity ahead of a formal launch.
Hyperliquid listing and competitive dynamics
Hyperliquid currently commands roughly 80% of on-chain perpetuals and about $30 billion in daily trading volume, while Lighter is positioning itself as a challenger through product and economic incentives. This framing sets the stage for a direct contest over users and liquidity as LIT approaches its launch window.
Lighter cites zero-fee trading and a points-based reward system, plus a custom Ethereum Layer-2 using zk-CLOB to offload block-size computations to the prover for sub-second latency. By contrast, Hyperliquid emphasizes throughput via HyperBFT, and reported yields highlight a wide incentive gap — 56% for Lighter versus 7% for Hyperliquid — which could accelerate user migration while raising questions about sustainability and cost.
Polymarket is also preparing a native token and an associated airdrop, with its CMO noting Hyperliquid’s token launch as a reference for design and sustainability. The token plan is slated to follow Polymarket’s U.S. relaunch, with trading volume widely presumed to be a likely eligibility metric for any distribution.
Short-term market pricing and on-chain movements point to high trader confidence in a Lighter airdrop and meaningful early price discovery via Hyperliquid’s pre-market listing.
