Following the Federal Reserve’s recent decision on rate cuts, optimism surrounding the bull market has notably diminished. According to recent data from Bitcoin prediction markets, the odds of a short-term rally above the six-figure psychological barrier are fading rapidly. Analysts from platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket suggest that, despite efforts, the digital asset could remain stagnant during the remaining weeks of the year.
Hard data coming from online betting paints a conservative picture for the close of December. On the Kalshi platform, participants assign barely a 34% probability of BTC crossing the $100,000 mark before December 31. Meanwhile, traders on Polymarket are even more skeptical, giving only a 29% chance of success to this price milestone before the new year, reflecting widespread caution among speculators.
Current price behavior supports this bearish sentiment, with the BTC/USD pair trading below expected highs. The highest peak recorded in December stood at $94,600 last Tuesday, while the last time the cryptocurrency traded above $100,000 was on November 13. This inability to reclaim key support and resistance levels has consolidated the view that the market lacks the necessary momentum for an immediate breakout.
Institutional Exhaustion Brakes Immediate Recovery
A determining factor in this slowdown is the notable reduction in purchasing activity by corporate treasuries. Data from Capriole Investments indicate that the daily rate of Bitcoin acquisition by companies has fallen, signaling potential exhaustion in institutional demand. This decline in corporate capital flow significantly hinders any attempt at sustained recovery in the short term, leaving the market vulnerable to macroeconomic uncertainty.
Nevertheless, the entity known as Strategy maintains an active stance, having expanded its treasury to 660,624 BTC following a recent purchase. Despite the general slowdown, Polymarket traders still see a 65% probability of this entity making routine purchases exceeding 1,000 BTC this week. However, these isolated acquisitions do not seem sufficient to counteract the structural weakness the spot market presents at this critical time of the year.
Can technical analysis reverse the current bearish trend?
From a technical perspective, the asset is consolidating within an ascending triangle on lower time frames, suggesting imminent price compression. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted that the price is pushing again against the supply zone located between the yearly open of $93,300 and $94,000. A break and close above this level could theoretically propel the value toward the measured target of the technical pattern.
However, more realistic projections point to a limited ceiling in the short term due to existing liquidity. Although the triangle’s technical target suggests $108,000, the move is more likely to stall upon retesting the previous support area around $98,000. This area concentrates a large amount of liquidity, acting as a magnet for price but also as a formidable barrier for bulls before year-end.
In summary, the combination of pessimistic derivatives metrics and weakened spot demand presents a difficult challenge for Bitcoin bulls. While there is a technical structure that allows for some moderate optimism, buyers will need to push the price decisively above $94,589 to change the narrative. Otherwise, the most likely scenario is continued consolidation, closing 2025 without reaching the coveted $100,000 milestone.
