The partial shutdown of the United States Government has extended beyond 30 days and threatens to surpass the 35-day record from 2019, a scenario that matters to the crypto market because of its impact on the availability of economic data, regulatory capacity and institutional risk perception. The standstill is estimated to drain about $7.000 millones per week and could subtract $14.000 millones from GDP growth, generating both volatility and significant flows into digital assets. This backdrop is altering investment decisions and regulatory timelines across the ecosystem.
Uncertainty began with fears of a “data blackout” that would deprive traders and investors of macro signals such as guidance from the Federal Reserve, employment and inflation, potentially amplifying volatility. In the week prior to the end of September, Bitcoin registered a drop of 5,73% to close at $96.522, but the market showed an unusual recovery: Bitcoin climbed toward all-time highs near $114.000 and Ethereum topped $4.000.
These moves came alongside notable capital inflows, with record inflows of approximately $5.950 millones into crypto funds and total flows near $6.000 millones, according to data compiled during the episode. The furloughing of staff at key agencies such as the SEC and the CFTC has delayed critical regulatory decisions, particularly those related to approvals of spot ETFs.
Goldman Sachs initially projected a resolution toward the second week of November 2025, while odds in prediction markets like Polymarket, which reached 84% for a shutdown ending in October, moderated to 66% and pointed to a possible extension until November 28. That prolongation increases the risk of a stalemate in legislative reforms and approvals that could attract institutional capital.
Implications for government shutdown
The combination of regulatory paralysis and market flows suggests opposing effects: on the one hand, regulatory uncertainty may slow institutional adoption and delay products that would widen liquidity; on the other, incoming capital brings greater demand and short-term price support. Concrete risks include greater volatility in the absence of macro data and delays in decisions that would clarify frameworks for custody, compliance and listings.
The next key horizon is November 28, a date highlighted by prediction markets as a possible end to the impasse; until then, the crypto ecosystem operates between greater demand for digital assets and uncertainty about when normalcy in regulatory decision-making will return.
