Toncoin (TON) traded at about $1.64 as the token remained in a consolidation phase, confined to a narrow intraday band that recent technicals describe as indecisive. The move comes after steep declines — roughly 22.7% over the past month and about 72% year‑on‑year — and matters for investors monitoring support around $1.60 and key resistance near $1.69–$1.75.
Toncoin is trading in a tight range, roughly between $1.61 and $1.69, with 24‑hour gains of about 1.6% and seven‑day volume about 6.91% below its weekly average. Short‑term momentum indicators show early bullish signs: the MACD histogram has turned positive at 0.0275, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in the mid‑50s, indicating neutral‑to‑bullish momentum with room before overbought levels. The RSI measures recent price momentum on a 0–100 scale.
Price remains below the 50‑day simple moving average at $1.78 and the 200‑day simple moving average at $1.92, which act as structural resistance. Meanwhile, Bollinger Bands are tightening — a volatility contraction that often precedes a larger move.
Viktoras Karapetjanc of Traders Union said, “Toncoin’s setup is constructive for nimble buyers but I expect mostly range trading unless we see a decisive move beyond key technical levels.” Taken together, the indicators point to a base‑building environment where a decisive break above $1.69–$1.75, ideally accompanied by a volume pickup, would be required to validate a short‑term bullish scenario toward $2.05–$2.36.
TON technical picture and market activity
TON’s technical profile sits against a backdrop of product and regulatory developments that shape medium‑term prospects. The Open Network’s architecture was originally conceived by the Telegram team and later transitioned to a community governance model after regulatory friction in the U.S. The project now operates under a foundation model, and a recent registration of the TON DLT Foundation under Abu Dhabi’s ADGM framework represents a jurisdictional milestone. Product integrations cited by market observers include a partnership to integrate the USDe stablecoin and an expansion of Telegram’s native TON wallet into the U.S., both of which are framed as adoption levers.
Analysts outline two primary paths. A bullish continuation requires breaking overhead resistance with rising volume; short‑term targets cited in technical scenarios range to $2.05–$2.36. Without those catalysts, range‑bound trading between roughly $1.57 and $1.71 is the base case. A failure of support in the $1.55–$1.57 zone could accelerate declines toward structurally lower support near $1.40.
Market‑wide factors, notably U.S. Federal Reserve policy shifts, remain relevant macro drivers. Market manipulation risks are acknowledged as an ambient hazard in digital‑asset markets, though no specific evidence of coordinated action on TON is cited.
