Ripple’s XRP token has recorded its first net capital inflow to exchanges in over a month, a signal that increases selling pressure in the market despite the optimism generated by the expectation of a potential approval for an XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF).
This move, confirmed by network data, suggests a weakening in the conviction of retail investors amid a persistent downtrend that brings the asset’s price closer to the crucial $2 level. According to on-chain data analysts like Glassnode and Santiment, XRP investment is polarized, with retailers selling and large investors quietly accumulating.
Recent data on the net position of XRP on exchanges reveals a significant shift, moving from several weeks of outflows to a clear capital inflow. This 30-day trend reversal indicates that holders are moving their assets to exchange platforms, generally as a precursor to selling, which weakens the short-term support for the price. On the other hand, whale activity, defined as addresses holding between 10 and 100 million XRP, counters this bearish sentiment. In the last week, these large investors have accumulated an impressive figure of 1.1 billion XRP, raising their total holdings to 9.74 billion XRP, valued at approximately $2.36 billion at the current value.
Strategic Capital Accumulation and the Relevance of On-Chain Data
The current context of XRP is marked by a bearish pressure that has kept the asset on a downward trajectory for almost a month, with failed breakout attempts. The recent inclination of retail investors to sell, as demonstrated by the inflows to exchanges, exacerbates this trend. However, aggressive accumulation by whales is a significant factor. This strategic accumulation reinforces optimism about the long-term performance of XRP, given that whales are often a key catalyst in market movements. The XRP blockchain, and the public data it offers, allows for the observation of how large capitals are buying amidst the weakness.
The possibility of a deeper correction is mitigated by the growing optimism surrounding the approval of a spot XRP ETF. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued guidance that could expedite the effectiveness of regulatory filings, which could benefit applicants like Bitwise. Any progress in ETF approval could instantly reverse bearish sentiment in the market. Therefore, XRP investment is now closely tied to the regulatory progress of these financial products.
Can Regulatory Momentum Prevent a Drop to the Critical $2 Level?
In this polarized environment, XRP’s short-term trajectory depends on two opposing forces: retail selling pressure and whale accumulation driven by ETF hope. If ETF expectations strengthen and bullish momentum persists, the asset could break its downtrend, targeting key resistances at $2.28 and $2.36. Conversely, if investor selling intensifies or if the ETF decision process suffers significant delays, XRP could resume its descent, putting the key support of $2.00 at risk. The community is attentive to regulatory signals that will determine the immediate future of XRP investment.
