XRP continues to encounter persistent sell pressure after multiple failed attempts to sustain a move above $2.12, undermining short-term bullish momentum. The token’s inability to convert intraday breakouts into validated closes has coincided with high-volume rejections and structural supply events, leaving traders and treasuries on guard.
Price action in early December illustrated the problem: a decisive push above $2.15 on December 1 reversed after breaching a bullish trend line near $2.18, and a later intraday uptick to $2.17 on December 10 was quickly sold into, preventing a sustained hold above $2.12. Trading volume jumped about 38% during one breakout attempt, yet that surge failed to sustain upward momentum, highlighting distribution rather than accumulation.
Short-term resistance has repeatedly proven sticky at $2.15–$2.22, while higher ceilings line up in the $2.60–$2.72 area (the latter often coinciding with the 200‑day moving average) and at $2.95–$3.20. Immediate downside support sits near $2.05, $2.00 and $1.9250.
A recent “Death Cross” — where the 50‑day exponential moving average falls below the 200‑day EMA — is active, a classic one-sentence definition: a Death Cross is a bearish technical signal formed when a shorter moving average crosses below a longer one and is commonly viewed as a sign of longer-term momentum loss.
Spot outflows totaling $9.4 million in a single session and a marked contraction in speculative interest across derivatives markets further underline decreasing conviction among leveraged traders.
XRP technical resistance and key levels
Large-holder distribution and predictable supply releases have materially altered the balance between buying demand and available XRP. Reports indicate Ripple transferred 250 million XRP from escrow in December 2025 and that co-founder Chris Larsen reportedly sold between $120 million and $175 million in separate transactions in July and October 2025, injecting meaningful supply into markets. Planned unlocks — including a 1 billion‑unit event noted for August 1, 2025 — add a structural overhang that can pressure prices when market appetite is thin.
At the corporate level, Ripple secured roughly $500 million in funding from Wall Street firms in November 2025, lifting its reported valuation to about $40 billion, a development that has not yet translated into sustained token demand. Market models cited in coverage place the probability of an XRP‑spot ETF approval at around 84%, a parallel factor that has not so far overridden technical selling and holder distribution.
XRP’s near-term trajectory will depend on whether buyers can absorb distributed supply and deliver confirmed closes above $2.12 and $2.17 on validated volume. Until those conditions are met, price action is likely to remain rangebound or to re‑test the support band near $2.05–$1.9250, keeping volatility elevated for traders and institutional treasuries.
