Zcash holders are displaying divergent strategies as ZEC approaches a key resistance band, with concentrated long-term accumulation by large wallets contrasted against sizable speculative shorting by a single large trader. On-chain trends and the technical setup point to a pivotal test near the $441–$457 zone that is likely to shape short-term direction.
On-chain metrics show large ZEC holders moving material supply off exchanges and increasing long exposure. Late-2025 transfers of roughly $93.36 million in ZEC from a major exchange to cold storage reduced immediate sell-side liquidity, while whale wallets absorbed an estimated $163 million in retail sell orders during November 2025, according to on-chain data.
The top 100 ZEC addresses also added to balances, rising 1.11% in a 24‑hour snapshot, signaling continued conviction among large holders. Separate on-chain reports noted 17 million withdrawn from exchanges, reinforcing the view that a portion of supply is being placed into custody rather than traded.
Technically, ZEC is coalescing into an ascending triangle on daily charts, characterized by higher lows pushing against horizontal resistance. Price has repeatedly tested the neckline around $457 while finding rising support near $404. A confirmed daily close above the $441–$457 resistance band followed by a retest as support is the technical trigger traders watch for a possible measured move toward a $613 target, roughly a 37% advance from current levels. Momentum indicators are consistent with constructive bias, with a Relative Strength Index near 58 and bullish MACD crossovers cited in analysis.
Offsetting these bullish signals, a substantial short position has been built by a large speculative actor; that trader’s floating profits exceed $17 million, creating a potential source of volatility if positions are adjusted rapidly.
Implications for Zcash investors
For investors and product teams, the withdrawal of large ZEC volumes to cold storage suggests lower immediate liquidity and potentially larger price moves on net flows. Custodians and trading desks should factor operational latency and capacity constraints into execution strategies if volatility rises.
From a compliance perspective, privacy-focused assets remain exposed to regulatory scrutiny; institutional interest via vehicles such as Grayscale’s Zcash Trust adds legitimacy but does not eliminate jurisdictional KYC/AML and licensing considerations that might affect market access or product design.
Zcash sits at an inflection where concentrated accumulation and a clear technical pattern lean bullish, but a large short position and regulatory uncertainty create meaningful downside risk.
