Hedera’s HBAR price has rebounded under clear institutional accumulation, but a single technical barrier near $0.155 stands between the current lift and a sustained rally. Large-wallet inflows and on-chain metrics signal institutional conviction, immediately contextualizing the market’s next decisive test.
On-chain analytics show concentrated buying: wallets holding more than 10 million HBAR rose by 91.6% since August 2024, while those with over 100 million HBAR increased by 31.9% in the same period. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has broken above a long-term downtrend, indicating stronger inflows from large holders.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) tracks the volume-weighted inflow and outflow of capital to reveal buying or selling pressure. Market observers describe this positioning as “big money,” reflecting deliberate, large-scale accumulation rather than retail-driven spikes.
Institutional endorsements and product developments have reinforced demand narratives. Anticipated HBAR-backed ETFs and filings from major asset managers are cited as validation of enterprise interest, while index inclusion and integrations—such as inclusion in an exchange index, a strategic public-sector partnership, and SWIFT integration testing—add operational and market-access context that can support longer-term institutional exposure.
Institutional accumulation and on-chain signals behind the HBAR price rebound
Price action now centers on the $0.155 resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a hidden bearish divergence, a momentum signal that suggests buyers have yet to generate decisive strength. Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures momentum by comparing recent gains to recent losses. A daily close above $0.155 is presented as the essential confirmation that would invalidate the bearish RSI signal and likely open targets toward $0.180 and $0.219, with a mid-to-longer-term range between $0.22–$0.25 and a higher resistance near $0.30.
Failure to breach $0.155 would increase the probability of consolidation or a pullback to key supports at $0.142 and $0.130. Market structure risks were highlighted by a large outflow in late October 2025, when 110 million HBAR — valued at more than $20.9m at the time — left large wallets, underscoring volatility and the speed with which institutional flow dynamics can reverse.
For product teams and compliance officers, the split between accumulation signals and technical vulnerability suggests two priorities: prepare for increased custody and settlement demands if flows accelerate, and monitor concentration risk and KYC/AML exposure tied to large wallet movements. For investors, the immediate risk/reward hinges on the $0.155 daily close.
HBAR’s recovery is supported by concentrated institutional accumulation and improving inflow metrics, yet it remains contingent on clearing the $0.155 resistance to signal a durable rally.
