Zcash (ZEC) has posted a strong rebound but still needs roughly a 59% rise to reclaim the $700 level that would mark a full recovery from last year’s drawdown. The token traded near $439 after a 40.5% rally, yet remains lower than the roughly 55% drop it suffered in November.
ZEC staged a notable short-term advance to about $439, reflecting a 40.5% run-up from recent lows, but a 59% gain would be required to reach $700 and retake the prior resistance zone. Technical indicators have shifted toward bullishness, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rising above the neutral 50 mark, a development market participants often view as the start of momentum recovery.
Chart patterns cited by analysts include an inverse head-and-shoulders target whose neckline sits in the $680–$700 range; a confirmed break there would open targets between $800 and $1,000. Key support is identified at a higher low near $364, which market makers appear to be defending as the recent rally developed.
Several protocol and supply-side factors underpin bullish scenarios. A scheduled halving in November 2025 will cut block rewards by 50% to 1.5625 ZEC, introducing an explicit supply shock that historically influences prices when demand is stable or rising; this event is already shaping market expectations, according to Bitget.
Zcash price action and technical setup
Adoption metrics point to increasing use of shielded transactions, now roughly 27–28% of activity, and have pushed the shielded supply beyond $1 billion. Shielded transactions use zero-knowledge proofs to allow verification without revealing sender, recipient or amount; that cryptographic method is central to Zcash’s privacy proposition.
The protocol’s roadmap and recent technical upgrades — including references to Halo 2 and the Orchard protocol (NU5) in market commentary — are cited as improving privacy features and use-case relevance. Some analysts place intermediate price targets between $500 and $750 if shielded adoption and liquidity continue to rise.
Institutional accumulation has become part of the narrative. Public and on-chain filings indicate meaningful positions; one named investor reportedly holds roughly 233,000 ZEC with an average entry near $291.04, signalling strategic treasury interest rather than pure retail momentum. ZEC has also shown episodes of negative or low correlation with Bitcoin, allowing it at times to rally when BTC is weak — a characteristic some allocators treat as diversification. Derivatives activity, including rising perpetuals liquidity and open interest, has supported more efficient price discovery but also raises funding- and leverage-related volatility risks.
Zcash’s path to a full recovery is contingent on both technical confirmation around the $680–$700 neckline and macro/protocol catalysts such as the November 2025 halving.
