SOL price action has underperformed the broader altcoin rally, falling about 32% from November highs and trading in the $120–$170 range as of late 2025. On-chain activity and DApp revenue have weakened even as major protocol upgrades and institutional investment plans suggest competing directional forces for Solana.
Solana’s recent underperformance is visible on key on-chain metrics. Weekly network fees declined to $4.5 million from $7 million, while DApp revenue fell roughly 30% to $26 million per week, indicating weaker economic activity on the chain. Transaction growth has shifted in part to rival L2s such as Base and Arbitrum, and interest in several Solana-based meme tokens has cooled.
Technical support levels cited by market commentators include $125 as an important floor and a $150–$160 range viewed as a stabilising band; a sustained close above $185 is often flagged as necessary for a bullish reversal.
Despite the pullback, the protocol’s technical narrative remains robust. Two major upgrades—Firedancer and Alpenglow—are scheduled for early 2026 and are expected to raise transaction capacity and compute per block. The network also demonstrated resilience during a 6 Tbps DDoS attack in 2025 without recorded downtime, an operational point commonly cited to rebut security concerns.
SOL price action and on-chain metrics
Developer momentum has been strong: roughly 7,625 new developers joined in 2024, an 83% year-over-year increase that surpassed Ethereum’s growth that year, according to community-tracked figures. DEX volumes on Solana have at times challenged Ethereum’s throughput, and projects facilitating large SOL transactions are still active. These indicators point to a continued innovation base even as short-term usage softens.
Institutional interest is advancing as a counterweight to weaker on-chain activity. Several Solana ETF applications converged on decision windows between October 10–16, 2025; Bloomberg analysts assigned a 90–95% approval probability, while prediction markets showed near-certain odds.
Products such as staking ETPs and dedicated funds have already attracted capital, and some firms are reported to be planning sizeable buy programs—for example, fundraising efforts of $1 billion to acquire SOL and Nasdaq-listed corporate purchases were cited by market sources. One major bank’s internal estimates projected $3–6 billion in first-year ETF inflows under certain scenarios.
Short-term ranges cited include $300–$500 by end-2025 in bullish scenarios, with longer-term models extending to four-figure levels for later years. These forecasts hinge on sustained ETF inflows, stronger DApp monetization, and network upgrade delivery.
SOL’s recent lag reflects softer on-chain demand, but structural drivers—protocol upgrades, developer growth and accelerating institutional access—remain active.
