Galaxy Digital projects a long-term bullish outcome for Bitcoin while flagging strong near-term uncertainty. The firm forecasts Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by the end of 2027, but describes 2026 as highly unpredictable given mixed macro and market signals, according to its research commentary. Options markets and derivatives pricing underscore the breadth of possible paths over the next year.
Options pricing implies nearly equal probabilities for sharply different mid-year outcomes—roughly $70,000 or $130,000 by mid-2026—and a spread between $50,000 and $250,000 by year-end, according to Galaxy Digital. This dispersion indicates that sophisticated participants are hedging for large moves rather than concentrating bets around a single path, and points to elevated event risk and asymmetric positioning in the options market.
Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital, summed up the near-term view as “too chaotic to predict,” noting the confluence of macroeconomic ambiguity, geopolitical risk and uneven crypto-market dynamics.
Structural drivers behind the long-term view
Galaxy Digital links its 2027 projection to structural developments that could support sustained demand and lower long-term volatility. The firm points to an expanded set of institutional strategies—including options overwriting and yield-generation programs—that can damp extreme price swings by creating systematic supply and income flows.
Galaxy also observes a pronounced volatility smile in option prices, where downside protection commands a higher premium than upside exposure; the volatility smile is a pattern in option pricing that reflects higher implied volatility for out-of-the-money puts relative to calls.
A second structural pillar is potential embedding of Bitcoin within mainstream asset allocation. The report suggests a major asset allocation platform could make Bitcoin a standard model portfolio component rather than an optional sleeve, which would create persistent, organic demand. Galaxy frames this institutional adoption alongside a narrative of Bitcoin increasingly used as a hedge against currency debasement similar to gold, rather than as a purely speculative play.
Implications for market participants are practical and immediate. For traders, the current environment elevates the value of volatility management and option-based hedges; for corporate treasuries and institutional allocators, Galaxy’s thesis implies that any incremental, rules-based allocation to Bitcoin should be paired with clear risk controls given the potential for large short-term dispersion.
Institutions monitoring liquidity and open interest will find derivatives pricing a key early warning signal of stress or complacency.
