Bitcoin faced a cluster of five bearish signals this month, driven by technical breakdowns, rising on-chain selling and macroeconomic headwinds. These converging indicators heightened downside risk for BTC despite ongoing institutional inflows.
Chart patterns and momentum oscillators showed a clear downside bias. Price action formed a bearish Kumo twist and repeatedly retested prior support as resistance on light volume, a setup that historically favors further declines. The MACD produced a bearish crossover against its signal line, while the RSI remained above the neutral 50 level but was vulnerable to a decisive move below it — a loss that would reinforce downward momentum.
On-chain metrics flagged elevated supply-side pressure. Large-holder behavior tracked higher exchange inflows, with a reported total inflow of 75.800 BTC in the sample period and 20.85% of that movement directed to Binance, suggesting preparation for sales or liquidation.
The market also experienced sharp price weakness below the $93,000 level that precipitated liquidation cascades, generating roughly $870 million in crypto liquidations in concentrated episodes. As per Glassnode, the data painted “a bearish longer-term picture” pointing to distribution by significant holders.
Cycle dynamics, macro convergence and market sentiment
Longer-duration signals compounded near-term technical risk. Bitcoin’s four-year cycle reached a decision point in January, with the 1.061-day rhythm aligning with deteriorating macro indicators such as weaker PMI prints and rising recession risk.
Market sentiment suffered as BTC repeatedly failed to sustain rallies above key thresholds, notably the $100,000 level, and began to decouple from M2 growth trends seen since mid-2025. Some wave-based analyses projected corrections would continue into late 2026, extending the period of consolidation or decline.
Institutional flows offered a partial counterweight: ETF inflows remained a mitigating factor, but they did not fully offset the technical, on-chain and macro pressures observed this month.
Investors and product teams should now watch short-term price action and incoming macro releases — particularly PMI prints and liquidity flows — which will test whether the current indicators mark a sustained bear market or a temporary correction. With some technical and cycle models projecting pain into late 2026, market participants will likely lean toward defensive positioning until a clear regime change emerges.
