XRP filled a $1.97 CME gap, a technical retest that pushed the token above Ethereum’s Ichimoku Cloud and reshaped the short‑term chart structure. The gap fill coincided with a bullish 4‑hour configuration that traders say could pave a path toward a $3 breakout by mid‑2026 if momentum holds.
The 4‑hour chart now shows several converging bullish signals. A TD Sequential reversal flashed at the $2 support, suggesting short‑term selling pressure has eased, while a symmetrical triangle is tightening with upper and lower trendlines near $2.32 and $1.88 respectively.
Analysts highlight a clean break above $2.05 — aligned with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement and the descending 200 EMA — as the trigger that could accelerate gains toward the $2.17–$2.29 zone and then $2.40–$2.45.
Extended Fibonacci projections cited by chartists point to a possible run into the $3.60 area under sustained buying, though that outcome depends on momentum and liquidity remaining supportive.
Institutional flows and regulatory context
Institutional demand has materially altered XRP’s market structure. Spot ETFs recorded a $10.63 million inflow on Jan 16, lifting total ETF AUM to about $1.56 billion, while CME XRP futures showed roughly $800 million in open interest. Exchange‑held balances are at multi‑year lows, tightening available supply.
Regulatory uncertainty has also shifted: the resolution of Ripple’s SEC litigation in August 2025 reduced a major structural risk and helped spur increased institutional participation. Cross‑asset studies add to the technical case — Matt Hughes flagged the XRP/ETH pair breaking above the two‑week Ichimoku Cloud, and price momentum indicators such as a forming MACD bullish cross and a rising RSI have drawn attention from technical desks.
Investors and compliance teams will watch whether XRP can hold the $2.05 breakout zone; a sustainable advance would shift focus to mid‑2026 ETF inflows and whether institutional desks continue to add size, validating a move toward $3.
Conversely, a failure to defend the $1.88–$1.95 area would concentrate attention on liquidity, algorithmic risk and short‑term downside management.
