Extreme volatility and fears over a possible U.S. government shutdown have caused Bitcoin traders to split almost equally between a market collapse and a recovery. According to the Myriad platform, owned by Dastan, the odds of dropping to 69,000 dollars versus a rebound to 100,000 are currently at an uncertain fifty percent.
This shift in sentiment, which has turned bearish for the first time in two months, reflects a widespread distrust among institutional and retail investors at the moment. However, the prediction platform shows constant fluctuations, granting barely a minimum margin of advantage to a potential rebound in price during the last hours of trading activity.
Political uncertainty scenario shakes global financial stability
While the digital asset trades near 82,927 dollars, the U.S. Senate deadlock regarding federal funding has injected unprecedented nervousness into the financial markets. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has collapsed to a level of 16, reaching the extreme fear zone for the first time so far during the current year.
Despite reports of a possible agreement between the White House and Democrats, the lack of a scheduled vote keeps Bitcoin traders under a selling pressure that prevents an immediate technical recovery. Therefore, the correlation with traditional markets has weakened, evidencing that the crypto asset has not bounced with the same strength as the Nasdaq following its recent dips.
Which factors will determine if the price manages to reach six figures again?
Coupled with the political crisis, Bitbank analyst Yukari Kusu points out that the underlying market weakness responds to macroeconomic conditions that favor short-term price vulnerability right now. Furthermore, the nomination of the next Fed Chair is emerging as a critical catalyst, potentially defining the direction of cryptocurrencies for the remainder of the first quarter of 2026.
However, CoinGecko data highlights that, while the tech sector showed resilience against disappointing earnings reports from giants like Microsoft, Bitcoin has remained stuck in a dangerous range. Thus, the lack of liquidity and the sentiment of extreme fear suggest that an additional capitulation toward lower support levels cannot be completely ruled out by anyone.
Ultimately, the future of the leading cryptocurrency will depend on the resolution of the budget conflict in Washington and the market’s ability to absorb external volatility. Although there is optimism about unlocking capital if the government avoids a shutdown, Bitcoin traders remain cautious, waiting for clear signals before committing long positions in such a hostile environment.
