Solana (SOL) is trading near the $100 level as indicators show signs of extreme oversold conditions, positioning the token favorably for a rebound. Short selling rallies are also expected during February.
Solana (SOL) market data shows the RSI falling below 30, with intraday readings reaching 16. Historically, such signs of selling exhaustion generate relief rallies in the price, so this is expected to happen for Solana within this month.
However, the market structure remained negative. One of the main indicators, price action, was trading below key exponential moving averages (EMAs), and the sequence of lower lows and lower highs persisted.
Solana levels to watch and probability of a rebound
MEXC assigned approximately a 65% probability to a tactical rebound toward $110 within the next one to two weeks, while immediate resistance above was mapped at multiple points. Traders and risk managers should treat any sharp upward move as corrective unless SOL reclaims the upper EMA territory and shows confirmation of momentum.
Analysts highlighted that for a sustained reversal to solidify, SOL would need to reclaim and hold the 20-day daily EMA zone and register a bullish MACD crossover. Absent these signals, price action is more likely to develop as relief rallies within a larger downtrend.
Short-term traders may find opportunities in a rebound driven by short closures and the RSI’s mean reversion. Institutional or longer-term participants should remain cautious: the macro bias was described as firmly bearish, and the recent $30 million hack plus broader outflows were cited as continued downward drivers. A lack of defense at $100 could extend the technical risk toward $95 and then $88.
For now, the risk-reward setup favors tactical buying for those planning tight stops. Sustained conviction will require the price to break above the $120–$124 EMA band and show confirmed momentum changes, according to technical reports published in early February 2026.
