TL;DR
- Bitcoin hovers around $110,000 as spot and futures volumes fall to one-year lows, signaling a possible seasonal pause.
- BTC options implied volatility drops to levels unseen since 2023, suggesting weeks of limited movement or slight adjustments.
- Despite lower trading activity, Bitcoin records $790 million in weekly inflows and maintains its bullish cycle driven by institutional demand.
Bitcoin (BTC) remains near $110,000, but market data points to a potential slowdown in the coming weeks.
According to Glassnode, spot and futures trading volumes have fallen to their lowest levels in over a year. This contraction in liquidity and volatility aligns with a common trend during summer months when global financial activity usually slows down.
$BTC options market is echoing the summer slowdown – implied volatility across all expiries (1W to 6M) is nearing all-time lows.
We're now pricing some of the lowest vol levels since mid-2023, despite price hovering near ATHs. https://t.co/qBc0rpVCWm pic.twitter.com/3ANnNmyI9I— glassnode (@glassnode) July 7, 2025
Daily spot volume stood at $5.02 billion, while futures contracts declined to $31.2 billion. Both figures show a sharp drop compared to previous months and raise questions about the sustainability of the short-term upward trend. Despite the decline, Bitcoin has held close to its all-time high, which some analysts interpret as structural strength beyond daily trading activity.
Bitcoin Hits Historic Lows in Implied Volatility
The options market also shows clear signs. Implied volatility, across weekly and six-month expirations, is approaching historic lows not seen since mid-2023. This decrease in volatility expectations suggests traders anticipate a period of relative stability or mild fluctuations without sharp moves in the short term.
However, a latent risk remains. In a low-volume environment, relatively small buy or sell orders can trigger exaggerated price reactions. For this reason, some traders warn that a sudden drop could push Bitcoin toward support around $100,000. Conversely, if volumes pick up, Bitcoin could surpass $112,000 and set a new record.
Beyond the seasonal pause, institutional demand remains strong. CoinShares reported over $1 billion in inflows to crypto investment products last week, with $790 million directed to Bitcoin. Ethereum also saw $226 million in inflows. Analysts at CryptoQuant believe that despite the slowdown in activity, Bitcoin’s bullish cycle remains intact, supported by solid institutional accumulation and steady capital inflows.
