Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, highlights the current buying opportunity while the Bitcoin price projection faces a critical technical crossroads. The asset has recently lost a long-term support level that had ensured its stability since 2023, which could trigger a deeper correction towards lower zones. Despite the adverse chart outlook, large investors continue to accumulate strategic positions, anticipating a vigorous recovery before the annual cycle closes.
Current technical data is worrying for the short term, as the cryptocurrency dropped below the MVRV mean band, placing the next bearish target at $75,700. This figure represents a potential 18% decrease from current levels hovering around $92,903, erasing much of the accumulated gains during the year. If selling pressure continues to intensify in the market, the asset could seek much deeper supports near the blue band at $52,800, replicating negative patterns from previous bear cycles such as those experienced in 2018 and 2022.
The loss of the yellow “fair value” band is a significant event that has not occurred since late 2022, marking a drastic shift in the price structure. This indicator has historically served as a reliable thermometer to measure asset health, and its breakdown usually precedes periods of sustained weakness in the global digital economy. Historically, when the price loses this key level, the quotation tends to drift towards the teal band, confirming that current volatility is not an isolated event but part of a larger correction.
On the other hand, this 30% retracement from all-time highs of $126,300 has put exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors in negative territory for the first time. However, whale behavior suggests a view contrary to widespread fear, as they have been buying aggressively during the dip. Institutional accumulation amidst technical uncertainty indicates that large capitals perceive these prices as an unrepeatable discount opportunity before the main bullish trend towards new records resumes.
Can Institutional Optimism Reverse the Current Bearish Trend?
Despite technical warning signs, authoritative voices like Tom Lee of BitMine maintain a firmly bullish stance, forecasting a 40% rebound before the end of 2025. This divergence between bearish technical charts and positive analyst expectations suggests an impending battle between retail capitulation and strategic institutional accumulation. Whales have been taking advantage of low prices to accumulate, which could act as a fundamental floor to prevent catastrophic drops and validate recovery theses in the medium term.
Finally, while on-chain indicators point to immediate risks of a drop towards $75,000, long-term sentiment remains robust among asset managers. Investors will need to watch closely if the MVRV band support manages to recover or if the correction deepens towards critical levels. The market is at a decisive turning point, where price action in the coming weeks will determine if the bull cycle renews with strength or enters a prolonged hibernation phase.
