Justin Bons, founder of Cyber Capital, predicted this January 16 that Bitcoin’s economic security will collapse very soon. The renowned expert estimates a period of seven to eleven years for this tragic event on the network. The warning arises from the lack of a real budget to effectively protect the system right now.
On the other hand, the detailed analysis indicates that the mining industry will fall drastically in the next decade. Bons claims that this will allow censorship attacks and massive double spending repeatedly within the chain. Game theory indicates that the digital system will fail without sufficient rewards for all its participants. The risk of a 51% attack will increase exponentially every year in a critical way for the network. Current incentives will not be enough to stop malicious actors according to the technical report provided.
Furthermore, halving processes reduce miner profits on a periodic and constant basis. Bitcoin needs infinite price growth to maintain its current technical and operational robustness. However, relying only on transaction fees is a mistake that is strategically very serious for the future. Limited block space prevents total fee revenue from actually rising to safe levels. The economic model of the network is unsustainable long term to keep the miners connected.
Technical and structural risks threatening the stability of the digital asset
Likewise, there is a latent danger related to digital bank runs that could occur very soon. The founder warns that congestion will inevitably trap user funds in the face of panic. Even with conservative estimates, transaction queues could last for several consecutive months without any interruption on the network. This would generate a massive panic very difficult to control for all institutional and retail global investors. Personal custody of assets will be unsafe during periods of high stress and massive congestion.
In addition, the difficulty adjustment mechanism presents an internal critical weakness that is completely evident. If the asset price drops significantly, miners will shut down their powerful mining equipment quickly. In this way, the network will enter an operational death spiral in an extremely dangerous and accelerated manner. Block production will slow down until it paralyzes almost the entire commercial chain and the exchange of value. This negative feedback loop will destroy market confidence in cryptocurrencies in a permanent way.
What political and technical solutions exist to avoid this possible future collapse?
Therefore, the Bitcoin system faces an impossible dilemma between inflation or absolute technical insecurity. A viable option is to eliminate the established limit of 21 million total coins in circulation. However, this measure would break the promise of digital scarcity of the asset definitively before its followers. The other alternative is to accept a weak network exposed to constant state or private group attacks. Stagnation in governance prevents making necessary structural changes to survive in the face of this crisis.
Finally, Bons suggests that the systemic crisis will force political decisions that will be very painful for the community. The future of the technological project depends on resolving these failures before the deadline indicated in his report. Nevertheless, it could be too late when the community finally decides to act with the required seriousness. Constant monitoring of these risk factors will be vital for all international investors today. The implications of this analysis will transform the perception of security in this complex digital ecosystem.
